Potentially record El Niño threatens blueberry and coffee prices worldwide

What could become the strongest El Niño on record is raising alarm across global agricultural markets, threatening to push up prices on everything from blueberries to coffee as the weather phenomenon disrupts harvests in key producing regions.

Peru's Blueberry Crop Under Pressure

Bloomberg reported Wednesday that the El Niño event — potentially the strongest in more than 75 years — is expected to intensify during Peru's peak blueberry harvest, coinciding with the start of the rainy season along the country's northern coast where most of the fruit is grown. Peru is the world's largest exporter of blueberries, and the threat of supply disruption comes as prices for the fruit are already elevated.bloomberg

The broader produce market faces similar headwinds. According to a July report from EastFruit, El Niño may affect blueberry, grape, cherry, and stone fruit exports from Peru and Chile during the 2026/27 season, creating risks around timing and volume.east-fruit

Brazil's Coffee Harvest Disrupted

In Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer and exporter, unusually high moisture levels linked to El Niño are causing early flowering and quality concerns. Reuters reported in June that rains drenched harvested coffee beans left to dry in farmyards across primary growing regions, forcing farmers to suspend fieldwork. The rainfall, unusual for what is typically a dry harvest period, has induced atypical flowering in July — months ahead of the normal September-October cycle.retail.economictimes.indiatimes+2

Agronomist Jonas Ferraresso warned that excess moisture could introduce bacterial and fungal diseases to coffee trees, a problem compounded by the inability to apply fungicides during harvest. Brazil's coffee industry association, Abic, has indicated El Niño could reduce the country's anticipated record harvest by 15 to 20 percent.reuters+1

A Potentially Historic Climate Event

The 2026-27 El Niño has a roughly 77 percent chance of becoming the strongest on record, according to Yale Climate Connections. The World Meteorological Organization assigned an 80 percent likelihood of an El Niño event during June through August 2026, with probabilities near or above 90 percent that it will continue through at least November. Wired reported the phenomenon could cause economic losses of $10 trillion by 2032.yaleclimateconnections+2

The economic ripple effects are already being felt. In the Philippines, economists at the University of Asia and the Pacific warned that the severe El Niño, combined with renewed Middle East hostilities and a minimum wage increase, could push inflation above 7 percent in the third quarter. The country's central bank is expected to maintain a tightening stance, with another 50 basis points of rate increases anticipated this year.newswav