OPEC+ output hits Iran war high as quotas stay unchanged

Seven core OPEC+ producers agreed on Sunday, Oct. 4, to keep their oil production targets the same for November. It is the second month in a row they have paused increases, and the decision came as war-related export bottlenecks left many members pumping well below their quotas.ground+1

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Algeria, Russia and Kazakhstan agreed to "maintain September 2026 required production for November 2026." Their combined quotas come to about 31 million barrels per day. The group said it "will continue to hold monthly meetings to review market conditions" while it reviews members' production capacity for 2027.ground

Output climbs but stays below target

Actual production is recovering, though it remains below target. According to Argus estimates published Friday, September crude output from the 17 OPEC+ members with targets rose by 2.47 million bpd from August to 30.24 million bpd. That is the alliance's highest level since the US-Iran war began. Even so, output was still 3.16 million bpd below February's pre-war level and 4.21 million bpd short of the combined September target of 34.45 million bpd.argusmedia

Saudi Arabia drove most of the increase. Its output rose by 2.11 million bpd to 8.55 million bpd, reversing an August drop caused by Houthi and Iraqi militia attacks. Those attacks limited exports from Yanbu, so the kingdom sent more crude through the Strait of Hormuz. Argus said Iraq became the first Gulf member to bring production fully back to its pre-war level, at 4.23 million bpd. Iran's output fell to 1.95 million bpd as the US naval blockade continued.argusmedia

Quotas carry limited weight

Analysts say the gap between targets and actual barrels shows how little control the group has over supply right now. "The group can change production targets on paper, but it cannot guarantee that those barrels will be produced or actually reach the market," Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy said after the group's September meeting. Gulf members' exports have run at roughly 60% to 80% of normal levels in recent months. OPEC+ first has to agree on 2027 output baselines before it decides how to unwind its remaining cuts.businesstimes+1

Mixed signals for prices

Brent crude was heading for a small weekly gain on Friday, while US crude edged lower, Anadolu Agency reported. President Donald Trump said the US would not strike Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, which eased some supply fears. Other factors supported prices: Hurricane Isaias shut in about 63% of US Gulf of Mexico oil output, US crude inventories fell, and the EIA raised its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to $$105$$ dollars a barrel. The G7's faster release of 100 million barrels from emergency reserves pushed in the other direction. Anadolu reported that the OPEC+ decision helped limit worries about extra supply entering the market.aa