Oil prices dip as Hormuz Strait traffic partially recovers

Crude oil prices dropped on Friday as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz showed signs of recovery, unwinding part of the geopolitical supply premium that had driven Brent above $93 a barrel earlier in the week when the United States and Iran exchanged military strikes.

Brent crude fell to around $88 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate slipped toward $82, according to CNBC. Both benchmarks remained on track for monthly gains of roughly 20%.shafaq+1

Hormuz Flows Ease Supply Fears

Commonwealth Bank of Australia said in a note Friday that crude traffic through the strait had recovered to approximately 30–35% of pre-war levels, adding that a rebound to 50–60% of normal flows could be enough to reassert oversupply conditions in the global market. The strait normally carries about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.cnbc+1

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said about 6.5 million barrels of oil a day moved through the strait over the past week with American military escorts. "We are using the United States military to escort out oil and gas out of the Strait of Hormuz," Wright told Bloomberg Radio.oilprice

Kpler data cited by Bloomberg showed fourteen commodity vessels transited the chokepoint in both directions on Wednesday, up from single digits the previous week. Still, Kpler cautioned that "confirmed clearance remained close to recent lows" and that "persistent maritime security risks, war risk insurance costs and Iranian interdiction now appear to be the main barriers".oilprice

Risks Remain Elevated

Despite the price retreat, analysts warn the outlook remains fragile. Mirae Asset noted that OECD countries drew down roughly 700 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves between March and June, leaving little buffer for a prolonged conflict. JPMorgan ↗ 0.27% estimates every additional month of supply disruption could add $7–8 per barrel to Brent, while Goldman Sachs The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. ↘ 0.63% has warned Brent could reach $120 if Hormuz shipping disruptions persist.cyprusshippingnews+1

Investors also weighed President Donald Trump's call to add tariffs on Iran to a bipartisan sanctions bill targeting Tehran and Russia, and the Houthi movement's declaration of a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia threatening Red Sea shipping lanes.economictimes+1

Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity analyst at ANZ, said crude was "edging lower as rising Middle East tension is being offset by signs of increased flows in the Strait of Hormuz". But with tanker traffic still far below pre-war levels, the underlying supply risk has not disappeared.shafaq