Odds of 2026 being hottest year on record jump to 69%, researchers say

An intensifying El Niño and the relentless march of climate change are raising the likelihood that 2026 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year in recorded history, according to a new analysis released Thursday by Berkeley Earth, a nonprofit climate research group.

The organization now puts the odds at 69% that 2026 will finish as the world's warmest year on record, a sharp increase from the 12% probability it estimated just weeks ago in its June temperature update. "We are likely to see something quite dramatic in the next year or so," Robert Rohde, chief scientist at Berkeley Earth, said Thursday. "It will be giving us weather conditions that we would normally expect to be a decade or more away. It's going to be a big deal."berkeleyearth+1

Extreme Heat Batters East Asia

The forecast arrives as brutal heat waves are already devastating parts of Asia. South Korea recorded its highest temperature since modern weather observation began in 1904, when the southeastern city of Yangsan reached 42.5 degrees Celsius on August 3, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration. The crisis prompted South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to order an "all-out response" as the heatwave death toll climbed past 20.reuters+2

In Japan, temperatures soaring above 40 degrees Celsius in July triggered use of the country's new weather category — "kokushobi," or "cruelly hot day" — a term the Japan Meteorological Agency introduced in April to more effectively warn the public about dangerous heat. Three cities in central Japan were the first to mark days under the new designation, according to the BBC.weather+1

Massachusetts Names First Chief Heat Officer

Closer to home, Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey announced Thursday the appointment of the state's first chief heat officer, making it the second state after Arizona to create such a position. Sarah Schlick, who previously served as special assistant to the national climate advisor under the Biden administration, will coordinate the state's response to escalating heat risks.bostonglobe

"Extreme heat is a predictable public health threat, and that recognition gives us an opportunity to prepare and act before people get sick," said Robbie Goldstein, the state's public health commissioner. Massachusetts has already warmed nearly 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit since the start of the past century, and the number of 90-degree days could double or triple by 2050 compared to the historic average.bostonglobe

The position, funded by The Boston Foundation, carries a salary of $80,000 to $90,000. Schlick will report to the state's climate chief and lead an intergovernmental council tasked with developing an action plan to protect vulnerable populations from extreme heat.bostonglobe