June heatwave cost European grain farmers €2 billion, new analysis finds

A record-breaking June heatwave has slashed an estimated €2 billion from the value of European grain production, hammering farmers across the continent and raising concerns about global food supply chains, according to new analysis published this week by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit.

A Continent's Harvest in Crisis

COCERAL, the European grain traders' association, issued an extraordinary mid-season forecast in July to capture the damage from the June heatwave, which shattered all-time temperature records in France, Germany, Denmark, and the Czech Republic. The ECIU analysis, based on COCERAL's revised numbers, found that nearly 9 million metric tons were stripped from grain production estimates in the four weeks following the extreme heat — more than the combined forecast grain output of Austria, Ireland, and the Netherlands.June heatwave knocks €2 billion off European harvest prospects – new analysis+1

At current farm-gate prices, the lost production of wheat, barley, and maize alone is valued at roughly €2.1 billion, or about 5 percent of estimated 2025 production value. After accounting for improved harvests in a few countries such as Bulgaria, the net loss falls to around €1.8 billion.Caliber.az+2

France Suffers the Deepest Blow

France, Europe's largest grain producer, absorbed the worst damage. The ECIU estimated French losses across maize and other grains at €891 million. The country's corn crop is expected to fall to 9.5 million tons, the lowest in 26 years, according to the French growers' association AGPM. Corn production forecasts were cut by 3.4 million tons from June expectations, as extreme heat during pollination devastated yields.Ukragroconsult+2

"I'm expecting yield losses of at least 50 percent, or even 70 percent, for certain crops, such as soya," said Benoît Merlo, a farmer in the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region. "We're no longer heading for a crash — we're already there."June heatwave knocks €2 billion off European harvest prospects – new analysis

Hungary experienced the next-largest hit at 2.4 million tons of lost production, followed by Spain at 1.4 million tons. S&P Global ↘ 0.52% reported that COCERAL cut its EU corn production forecast to 52.7 million metric tons from 57.2 million, below the 57.4 million tons harvested last season.S&P Global Energy+1

Ripple Effects for Global Markets

The shortfall is expected to increase European dependence on corn imports from Ukraine and Brazil, with the USDA raising its EU corn import forecast to 22.1 million metric tons in July, up from 19.5 million in June. France's wheat harvest, forecast by the agriculture ministry at 32 million tons — down 4 percent from 2025 — could also constrain exports to key markets in North Africa.rfi+2

Tom Lancaster, the ECIU's land, food and farming analyst, warned that the losses "are just a portent of the future impacts we will see if we don't reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero."June heatwave knocks €2 billion off European harvest prospects – new analysis