Indian refiners send ships into Hormuz as oil flows rebound

JPMorgan Chase ↘ 0.24% says crude oil shipments from the Middle East have recovered to 98% of pre-war levels, even though the region is still at war. The rebound comes as Iran considers a U.S. counterproposal for a seven-day ceasefire. On Wednesday, Sept. 30, three commercial vessels were reportedly struck in the Strait of Hormuz.bloomberg+2

"The Middle East's oil export arteries are flowing again," JPMorgan analysts including Natasha Kaneva wrote in a Sept. 29 note. They called it "a remarkable recovery for a region still at war," though they added that the recovery has been uneven.bloomberg

An uneven recovery

JPMorgan put crude shipments at 17.5 million barrels a day. Shipments of fuels such as diesel and gasoline were at 3 million barrels a day, or 58% of pre-war levels. Total flows reached 89% of 2025 levels. The bank said traffic through Hormuz had nearly returned to late-June highs of almost 13 million barrels a day, mostly because of Saudi Arabia. Goldman Sachs The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. ↗ 0.66% estimated that Persian Gulf oil exports, including covert "dark" shipments, rose to 23.3 million barrels a day last week. That matches the 2025 average. However, estimates of exports through Hormuz itself still vary widely between the banks.oilprice+1

Indian refiners are also changing how they buy oil. Bloomberg reported that they are hiring tankers to sail through the strait and pick up crude inside the Persian Gulf, a move aimed at cutting costs and securing supply. People familiar with the effort said Sinokor Group and Dynacom Tankers Management have won tenders. Bids from Shipping Corp. of India The Shipping Corporation of India Limited and Lila Global were canceled.bloomberg

Ceasefire proposal under review

Iranian officials and state media said on Wednesday that Washington had answered Tehran's plan for a seven-day ceasefire and a phased reopening of the strait with a counterproposal, and that the government was considering it. Qatari mediators delivered the U.S. response. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran's plan would reopen the strait and restore normal shipping at the end of the seven days, provided Washington first met Tehran's conditions.cbsnews+1

It was not clear whether the U.S. had accepted Iran's wider conditions for reopening the strait. Those conditions include oil-sector sanctions relief, the release of frozen assets and an end to the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. The latest exchange followed talks in New York last week between Araghchi and U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.indiaweekly+1

Attacks at sea

Soon after Iran received the U.S. response, three commercial vessels, including an oil tanker and an LNG tanker, were reportedly hit by unknown projectiles in the strait. No one has claimed responsibility. There is no information yet on damage or injuries.abcnews4+1

The war started in late February. Since then, Iran has blockaded commercial shipping through the strait, and the U.S. has tried to cut off Iranian oil exports by blockading Iran's ports. Before the war, the waterway carried about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas.indiaweekly