IEA deepens oil supply forecast as Hormuz data dispute widens

A widening gap between U.S. government claims and independent tracking data on oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz is fueling market uncertainty, with vessel-monitoring firms reporting volumes roughly half of what Energy Secretary Chris Wright has asserted.

The Data Dispute

Wright posted on X on August 12 that "thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military and our gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million bpd," adding that total Middle East oil flows are "currently averaging approximately 15 million bpd" when pipeline exports are included.finance.yahoo+1

However, commodity analysts Kpler reported far lower figures. According to Reuters columnist Clyde Russell, Kpler data showed crude exports via the Strait of Hormuz at 2.77 million barrels per day for the week beginning July 27, dropping to 1.74 million bpd for the week starting August 3. Even the best week since the conflict began — starting June 29 — saw only 6.98 million bpd leave the strait. LSEG Oil Research showed Middle East crude exports of 9.33 million bpd for the first 12 days of August, down from 12.35 million bpd in July.marinelink

The ship-tracking service Kpler recorded just 14 crossings on Tuesday, far below pre-conflict levels of roughly 120 vessels per day, according to Yahoo Finance. Wright did not provide detailed vessel names or cargo information to support his higher calculation, despite requests from media outlets and tracking firms.finance.yahoo

Why the Gap Matters

The discrepancy — between 3 million and 5 million bpd — carries direct implications for how tight global oil markets actually are. If government figures overstate flows, the market may be masking supply constraints caused by the ongoing conflict that erupted when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.marinelink

The International Energy Agency compounded supply concerns on August 12, projecting global oil supply will fall by 4.3 million barrels per day in 2026, explicitly citing ongoing Hormuz disruptions. Meanwhile, the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index showed that while manufacturers reduced precautionary stockpiling in July, supply shortages remained elevated — and the survey was mostly conducted before the latest escalation in the strait.finance.yahoo+2

Three Possible Explanations

Russell outlined three scenarios: the tracking services are missing clandestine shipments; the U.S. government is inadvertently double-counting ship-to-ship transfers; or officials are knowingly disseminating inflated figures to support a political narrative. He noted the dispute could be resolved within weeks as import arrival data from purchasing countries becomes available, given typical tanker transit times of about six weeks.marinelink

Wright posted that "many private businesses undercount the number of ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz due to ships moving covertly through the waterway," but offered no supporting evidence.finance.yahoo