Fuel prices surge past $100 as Middle East crisis chokes global oil supply

Fuel prices across Europe climbed again this week as the ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran continues to choke global energy supplies through what the International Energy Agency has called "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market."iea+1

Crude oil surged past $100 per barrel on Tuesday, driven by Iranian attacks that have slashed daily vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz to fewer than 20 ships — down from a pre-war flow of roughly 20 million barrels per day of crude and petroleum products. Simultaneous Houthi rebel attacks in Yemen are disrupting shipping through the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, closing off what had served as an alternative route between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.euronews

Europe Feels the Squeeze

The Netherlands reported Europe's highest petrol price on Tuesday at €2.43 per litre, followed by Denmark at €2.35 and Finland at €2.32, according to data cited by Euronews. Diesel prices were steeper still: Denmark topped the list at €2.52 per litre, while France reached €2.40 and Italy €2.36.euronews

EU-wide averages have risen sharply since June. Diesel averaged €2.075 per litre in the week of September 14, up 23% from late June, while petrol averaged €1.924, up 12%.euenergyprices

The IEA noted that global refinery production in July 2026 was nearly five million barrels per day below July 2025 levels, creating a bottleneck in refined products. Direct drone strikes on refineries in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain have compounded the problem, while continued attacks on Russian refinery infrastructure from Ukraine have forced major buyers such as Turkey and Brazil to scramble for alternative diesel supplies.euronews

Ripple Effects Hit India and the U.S.

India's state-run oil marketing companies — Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation — are losing a combined ₹530 crore (roughly $63 million) daily, according to rating agency ICRA. India's crude oil basket reached $117.4 per barrel on September 21, up from an average of about $66 during the 2025–26 fiscal year, while domestic retail fuel prices have remained unchanged.thestatesman+1

In the United States, business activity hit its highest level in more than five years in September, but the expansion is being accompanied by what S&P Global ↗ 1.01% chief business economist Chris Williamson described as "some of the most severe supply chain disruptions in the survey's nearly two-decade history, excluding the pandemic period." Input prices for U.S. businesses rose to their highest reading since October 2022, with record diesel costs driving transportation expenses higher.mezha

No Relief in Sight

European Central Bank experts told Euronews they expect diesel refining margins to peak in October, while petrol margins likely peaked in August. Reuters Thomson Reuters Corporation ↗ 2.92% reported that the ECB found gas price surges are feeding into euro zone inflation faster than during the 2022 energy crisis, though rising renewable energy production may cushion the blow to electricity costs.reuters+1

The crisis shows little sign of easing. Negotiations between Iran and the United States hit another deadlock in August, prompting hostilities to resume, and the shutdown of Saudi Arabia's critical East-West pipeline — the main bypass around the Strait of Hormuz — after a drone attack in mid-September has further tightened supplies.euronews+1