Europe set to enter winter with gas stocks at 15-year low

EU gas storage is projected to peak at just 76% full before winter, the lowest since at least 2011, the Financial Times reported Sunday.united24media+1
Facilities began refilling at only 28% after a harsh winter, and disrupted Gulf LNG shipments have slowed restocking efforts.united24media+1
Equinor warned Europe is unlikely to hit even 80%, while analysts say prices will climb heading into winter.reuters+1

Europe is on track to enter the upcoming heating season with its lowest gas storage levels in at least 15 years, raising the prospect of price spikes and supply vulnerability heading into winter 2026-27. The Financial Times reported on June 29 that EU storage facilities are forecast to end the restocking season in October at only 76 percent of capacity — the lowest peak since at least 2011.united24media+1

A Depleted Starting Point

EU facilities began the refilling period at just 28 percent full after a particularly cold winter drained reserves, and currently sit at around 48 percent capacity. That starting position was the lowest since 2018, according to Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, which noted Europe entered the 2026 injection season with just 31 billion cubic meters in storage.energypolicy.columbia+1

The shortfall traces back to a harsh winter that pushed storage to multi-year lows by early 2026. Reuters Thomson Reuters Corporation reported in January that EU storage had dropped to 44 percent — the lowest for that time of year since 2022 — and warned that levels could fall to 30 percent or below by the end of March. Energy Aspects data from late June showed storage at 46 percent, some 15 billion cubic meters below the five-year average.energyaspects+1

Supply Disruptions Compound the Problem

Multiple disruptions have made refilling harder. The war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran earlier this year temporarily severed LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which had carried roughly 20 percent of global LNG supply. Although an interim peace deal stabilized prices at around €40 per megawatt hour, the resulting price calm has paradoxically made it harder to attract spot LNG cargoes from the United States to European terminals.united24media

"While the announced US-Iran deal has pushed down gas prices and raised hopes for a flood of Mideast Gulf supply returning to the market, the longer we see constrained LNG supply, the lower start-of-winter European gas stocks will be and the bigger the chance of winter price spikes," said Natasha Fielding, an analyst at Argus Media.united24media

Adding further pressure, an EU ban on Russian LNG imports under long-term contracts takes effect on January 1, 2027, eliminating flows that currently account for 14 percent of European imports.spglobal+1

The Path Forward

The European Commission has lowered its storage target to 75 to 80 percent, down from the 90 percent benchmark enforced in prior years, in an effort to avoid short-term price spikes from aggressive buying. EU energy commissioner Dan Jørgensen said the bloc needs high reserves "to make sure that we are ready for next winter" but wants to avoid fueling price increases in the process.brusselssignal+1

Goldman Sachs analyst Samantha Dart estimated that if Qatar's undamaged LNG units at Ras Laffan return to full capacity by late July, European storage could reach 74 percent by winter. A month's delay in that recovery would push the figure to 70 percent. Norwegian energy company Equinor warned in May that Europe is unlikely to reach even 80 percent before winter begins.united24media+1

Tom Marzec-Manser, director for European gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, cautioned that prices will likely climb as winter approaches, "creating structural risks if Europe faces a severe cold weather scenario in early 2027."united24media

Sources (26)