El Niño floods, fires turn deadly as WMO warns of record

The head of the United Nations weather agency has warned that the current El Niño could reach a strength never seen in modern monitoring. Its effects are already showing up across several continents, with deadly floods in Argentina, fatal wildfires in Peru and a prolonged drought cutting off river towns in French Guiana, AFP reported via Phys.org.phys.org

"The current El Niño event could be unprecedented in strength – literally, off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades," World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said at a Geneva press conference on October 21, according to UN News. The WMO's latest seasonal update says sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific could rise to 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 2027. The agency declares an El Niño at an anomaly of just 0.5°C, the WMO said. The event is expected to peak toward the end of the year.public.wmo.int+1

Calls for early action

Saulo and UN aid chief Tom Fletcher made a joint call for "urgent and coordinated anticipatory action" to protect vulnerable communities, Euronews reported. Fletcher called El Niño a "wrecking ball" for Latin America, eastern and southern Africa, Asia and the Pacific, and warned that 50 million people could face increased hunger, according to AFP. "A powerful El Niño does not have to be a recipe for humanitarian disaster," Saulo said, per the WMO.public.wmo.int+2

In the United States, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has forecast "with high confidence" that the event will reach record-breaking strength this winter, USA Today reported.usatoday.com

Floods, fires and drought

In northeastern Argentina, flooding linked to El Niño has killed two people in recent days. More than 2,000 people were forced from their homes last week after heavy rain swelled the Paraná, Uruguay and Iguazú rivers, AFP reported. In Peru, authorities say at least 12 people have died since June in forest fires driven by hot, dry air. In French Guiana, months of low rainfall have brought river traffic to a halt, so authorities set up an air bridge to supply about 40,000 residents of isolated towns.phys.org

In Somalia, the International Organization for Migration said 874,319 people could be displaced between October and December, with flooding accounting for 92% of the total, Shabelle Media Network reported. The agency has secured only about 14.4% of the $16.6 million it needs for its response, the UN spokesperson's office said.allafrica.com+1

Limits of attribution

Scientists caution that no single event can be blamed entirely on El Niño. "El Niño can make certain weather events more or less likely over the course of a season," NOAA physicist Michelle L'Heureux told AFP, adding that "we simply can't attribute an entire weather phenomenon or associated extreme event solely to El Niño, because other factors also play an important role," according to Phys.org.phys.org