Drone strikes to cost Russian e-commerce $4.8B, analysts say

Ukraine's months-long drone campaign against Russia's online retail warehouses will strip the country's e-commerce sector of 400 million orders and 400 billion rubles ($4.8 billion) in revenue this year, according to estimates published September 17 by The Moscow Times, citing the Russian research firm Data Insight. The forecast marks the first attempt to price the full consumer-market damage of a campaign that has reshaped how millions of Russians shop.themoscowtimes

A Growth Forecast Slashed by a Fifth

Data Insight founder Fyodor Virin said his firm cut its 2026 growth forecast for Russian online retail by 20%, attributing the revision entirely to the warehouse strikes. The market is now expected to reach 9.6 billion orders, down from a projected 10 billion, with total sales of 15 trillion rubles instead of 15.4 trillion. The losses fall overwhelmingly in the second half of the year: strikes on Wildberries warehouses began on July 18 and on Ozon facilities on August 25.united24media+3

The bombardment knocked out eight of Wildberries' ten largest logistics centers, eliminating over 81% of the company's top-tier storage capacity. Reuters reported in August that attacks had hit more than 20 Wildberries sites in under three weeks, sparking major fires and disrupting the retailer's vast logistics network. The BBC confirmed early strikes killed at least eight warehouse workers.united24media+2

Sellers Flee, Shoppers Return to Stores

About 30% of orders affected by the disruption were canceled outright, Virin estimated. The remaining unmet demand shifted mostly to rival online platforms and, to a lesser extent, brick-and-mortar retail. Russian shopping centers recorded an unexpected rebound in foot traffic this summer, particularly for clothing, footwear, and books.ua+1

Wildberries sellers face a compounding crisis. Payout delays that began in mid-August left some merchants unable to collect weeks of revenue, with the company initially blaming a DDoS attack. Many sellers are now planning to liquidate remaining Wildberries inventory and migrate to other platforms, according to The Moscow Times.united24media

The Balance Sheet

Data Insight analyst Sergei Semko estimated that Wildberries' parent company RWB faces infrastructure losses of 147 to 280 billion rubles ($1.7–3.3 billion), while its sellers have lost an estimated 445 to 507 billion rubles ($5.3–6 billion) in goods. Ozon's losses are far smaller, at roughly 100 billion rubles ($1.2 billion), owing to its more decentralized, largely rented warehouse network, according to Alfa-Bank analysts. Wildberries' founder acknowledged in July that standard insurance policies do not cover drone-strike risk, leaving sellers to absorb much of the damage themselves.newsukraine.rbc+2