Danube crisis squeezes Black Sea grain exports

Record-low water levels on the Danube River are disrupting energy supplies and squeezing grain exports across Central and Eastern Europe, as successive heat waves and months of drought push the continent's second-longest river to historic lows.

Nuclear Plants Forced Offline

Hungary's Paks Nuclear Power Plant, the country's sole nuclear facility and supplier of nearly half its electricity, has been operating at roughly 10% of its normal 2,000-megawatt capacity since early August after most of its reactors were taken offline due to insufficient cooling water. The plant was fully shut down on Aug. 3 for the first time in its 44-year history, according to Euronews, though Prime Minister Péter Magyar expressed cautious optimism days later as water levels edged slightly higher.aljazeera+2

"The good news is that we are now nine centimetres above the Danube's Sunday low, and rain is expected over the Austrian catchment areas," Magyar wrote on X on Aug. 7. He nonetheless urged Hungarians to continue voluntarily reducing electricity consumption.euronews

In Romania, authorities shut down one reactor at the Cernavodă nuclear plant and used military explosives to blast rock near the Danube's Bala Canal in an effort to redirect water toward the facility, according to the Associated Press. Serbia's key hydroelectric plant has been reduced to 20% capacity.apnews

Across the region, the Danube's water level in Budapest fell to roughly 10 centimeters — far below the previous all-time low of 33 centimeters set in 2018, AP reported.apnews

Grain Corridor Under Strain

The drought is also choking a critical export route for Black Sea grain. Bloomberg reported on Aug. 10 that record-low Danube levels are restricting cargo flows through Romania's Constanta port, which has served as a relief valve for Ukrainian grain since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022.gcaptain+1

Barges on the Danube have been forced to reduce loads by up to 80%, driving up river freight costs and creating knock-on delays for road and rail transport. "Romanian farmers no longer have access to trucks, and transport costs have increased dramatically," said Stan Tiberiu-Dan, vice president of the Forum of Professional Farmers and Processors of Romania.mezha+1

The logistical crunch comes as Romania heads toward a record wheat, barley, and rapeseed harvest, with corn shipments set to overlap with the tail end of wheat flows. Wheat and corn futures surged last month in both Paris and Chicago amid the disruptions.gcaptain

No Relief in Sight

With no rain forecast and August typically Europe's hottest and driest month, conditions are expected to worsen. "With no immediate relief in sight, either through an easing of hostilities in the Black Sea or a recovery in Danube water levels, prices could remain well supported," said Burak Cetinok, global head of research at Arrow, a shipping and energy brokerage.gcaptain

On the Rhine, water levels at Kaub fell to a record 19 centimeters on Aug. 5, prompting force majeure declarations from BASF and other chemical producers unable to move raw materials by barge.cyprusshippingnews