Crop prices hit three-year high as Hormuz and Black Sea crises collide

Global crop prices have reached their highest level in three years as the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz blockades an estimated 3.9 million tonnes of Middle East urea exports, compounding pressure from renewed Black Sea conflict and heat waves that are squeezing grain supplies worldwide.finance.yahoo+1

Fertilizer Squeeze Becomes Food Crisis

The International Food Policy Research Institute has described the unfolding disruption to fertilizer supply chains as an "input crisis" that risks becoming a full-blown food crisis, particularly for poorer nations. Since the strait first shut to commercial shipping at the end of February following the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, roughly 30% of the Middle East's annual fertilizer trade has been cut off from global markets.cnbc+3

Urea prices surged approximately 50% in the weeks after the conflict began, rising from around $480 per metric ton before the war to roughly $700 by mid-March, according to CNBC reporting on Oxford Economics data. The World Bank documented a 46% month-on-month spike in urea prices between February and March. Although prices stabilized somewhat after the initial shock, the sustained blockade continues to strain markets as the U.S. and Iran traded fire again in mid-July over control of the waterway.npr+2

Black Sea Attacks and Heat Waves Add Pressure

The fertilizer crisis has converged with a renewed escalation in the Black Sea. Ukrainian strikes on Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov in early July led Russia to temporarily halt shipping from the Don River, threatening a route that carries nearly 25% of Russian wheat exports, according to Reuters data cited by the UK Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. A Russian missile struck a civilian grain cargo ship on July 19, killing 10 crew members. Wheat futures climbed to a two-year high on the disruptions, while European maize crops have suffered from heat stress, prompting the International Grains Council to cut its 2026/27 global maize forecast by more than 4%.ahdb+3

Millions More at Risk of Hunger

A United Nations food security report released this week found that 645 million people faced hunger in 2025, and warned conditions may worsen. In an interview with the Associated Press, IFAD President Alvaro Lario said geopolitical disruptions to shipping and energy supplies, including uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, could leave an additional 9 to 18 million people facing hunger if the shocks persist. The FAO's chief economist, Maximo Torero, warned earlier this year that the fertilizer deficit could produce a severe global food crisis within six to twelve months, noting that even if the strait reopened immediately, reduced planting decisions already made by farmers would keep prices elevated.srnnews+2