ASML raises 2026 outlook after Q2 earnings beat

ASML ↘ 0.19% shares climbed roughly 1.6% in European trading on Thursday and Friday as investors digested a second quarter that beat expectations and a raised full-year outlook, reinforcing the Dutch company's dominance in advanced chipmaking equipment.

Blockbuster Quarter Beats Estimates

ASML reported Q2 2026 revenue of approximately EUR 9.3 billion and net income of about EUR 2.9 billion, according to European Business Magazine. Earnings per share came in at EUR 7.58, topping the consensus estimate of EUR 6.95 by roughly 9%, based on analyst figures compiled by Yahoo Finance. Management raised full-year 2026 sales guidance to a range of EUR 43 billion to EUR 45 billion, pointing to sustained demand for its lithography systems from both logic and memory customers.ad-hoc-news+1

Free cash flow surged 268% year over year in the quarter, while memory net system sales are expected to grow more than 75% in 2026, driven by high-bandwidth memory and advanced DRAM nodes. CEO Christophe Fouquet said customers are "aggressively" adding capacity, and CFO Roger Dassen described upgrade demand as "very, very strong because customers are looking for productivity".247wallst

Analysts Stay Bullish, Eye EUV Expansion

Bank of America Securities analyst Didier Scemama reiterated a Buy rating on ASML with a price target of EUR 2,452, while Bernstein AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. ↘ 1.02% maintained its own Buy rating with a EUR 2,500 target. Full-year 2026 earnings per share estimates now average around EUR 38.33, up from EUR 24.71 in 2025.theglobeandmail+1

JPMorgan ↘ 0.73% analysts noted that ASML is exploring whether it can push EUV production beyond 110 systems in 2028, up from at least 80 machines in 2027 — a jump of more than 37%. The constraint, according to JPMorgan via Reuters Thomson Reuters Corporation ↗ 2.92%, is not supplier capacity but ASML's own ability to assemble the machines fast enough.tradingview

Sector Tailwinds and What Comes Next

The broader semiconductor equipment spending outlook remains supportive. Bank of America projects wafer fabrication equipment spending to rise from $156 billion to $360 billion by 2030, with ASML seen as a primary beneficiary given its monopoly in extreme ultraviolet lithography. Chipmakers led a rebound in European markets as Treasury yields retreated.ad-hoc-news

ASML is scheduled to report its next quarterly results on October 14, 2026, providing the next catalyst for a stock that has traded between EUR 783.40 and EUR 1,741.00 over the past 52 weeks on Euronext Amsterdam.ad-hoc-news