Anthropic’s IPO valuation rests on $200B revenue forecast for 2028

As Anthropic prepares for what could be one of the largest initial public offerings on record, Wall Street bankers are looking unusually far into the future to justify the AI company's valuation, relying on a 2028 revenue projection of $190 billion to $200 billion, according to a Reuters exclusive published Friday.thestar

The forecast dwarfs Anthropic's current annualized revenue run rate of approximately $47 billion, reported as recently as May, and underscores the scale of growth investors are being asked to underwrite. Anthropic expects revenue of at least $10.9 billion for the second quarter of 2026, more than double the prior quarter, putting it on track for its first quarterly operating profit of $559 million.thestar

Bankers Look Two Years Ahead

Bankers and investors are applying enterprise value-to-revenue multiples based on forecasts two years out rather than current financials, an unusual approach that reflects how rapidly Anthropic's business is expanding, four sources told Reuters. The company's revenue run rate grew more than tenfold annually in each of the three years through early 2026, climbing from roughly $9 billion at the end of 2025 to over $47 billion by May.benzinga+1

The method has some precedent. Backers of Cerebras Systems cited 2028 revenue expectations ahead of that company's IPO this year, and SpaceX projections extended to 2029 before the rocket company went public at a record valuation in June.thestar

Public Comparables Set the Bar

Palantir ↘ 2.78%, Cloudflare ↘ 4.55%, and SpaceX are among the public companies being used as reference points ahead of Anthropic's analyst day, according to Reuters. Palantir trades at 53 times expected 2026 revenue, while Cloudflare and SpaceX both trade at 41.6 times, per LSEG data.benzinga+1

Not all observers are convinced. "Could they get a $2 trillion valuation, yeah they could, and I just wonder if it would stay there over time," David Merkel, a principal at Aleph Investments, told Reuters. He questioned whether AI "really produces so much additional productivity" to justify such a price.thestar

Prediction Markets Signal IPO Anticipation

On the regulated prediction exchange Kalshi, markets tracking whether OpenAI or Anthropic will IPO first have drawn combined volume of $1.3 million. OpenAI carries a 94% implied probability of going public first, though Anthropic-related contracts have also attracted substantial interest.startuphub

Anthropic did not immediately respond to requests for comment.thestar