Anthropic futures trade above newly set $70-$78 IPO range

Traders in offshore crypto markets are betting that Anthropic's shares will jump when they start trading. Pre-IPO perpetual futures tracking the AI company on Hyperliquid are priced well above the $70 to $78 per share range it set on Tuesday, November 10. CNBC reported that the current Hyperliquid Anthropic contract implies a stock price of about $98 and a market value of roughly $1.7 trillion. CNBC put that at more than 30% above the range in the company's updated S-1 filing.cnbc.com

These perpetual contracts, or "perps," never expire and are meant to track the price of private companies. They give a rough read on demand ahead of what could be the largest IPO on record. That matters to an AI sector that has been under pressure from a broad tech selloff.

What the contracts show

According to CNBC, about $250 million traded across Hyperliquid's two Anthropic contracts in the 24 hours before its report, citing the exchange. Trading is not open to U.S. investors. The contract started trading two weeks ago at $138. It then held between $110 and $120 before last week's tech selloff, at one point slipping below $94. Pre-IPO perps also trade on Coinbase ↘ 2.92%, Binance and OKX.cnbc.com

The Defiant noted that the ANT contract is tied to one Class A share. Holders get no equity and no right to IPO shares, and the contract is expected to keep trading after the listing.thedefiant.io

Supporters of these markets say the prices show that bankers deliberately price IPOs low to make sure of a first-day "pop." They point to SpaceX. Its perps traded at a premium and then lined up with the share price at the IPO, and the stock then rallied as much as 40% over three days, CNBC reported. The same report said perps tracking OpenAI fell 7% as Anthropic's roadshow got underway. Shares of Hyperliquid Strategies ↘ 1.80%, which holds HYPE Hyperliquid ↘ 1.80% tokens, fell 4% on Tuesday.cnbc.com

The offering terms

Anthropic plans to sell 825 million Class A shares, which would raise up to $64.35 billion at the top of the range. That would value the company at up to $1.405 trillion on a fully diluted basis, compared with its $965 billion valuation in May, according to CNBC. The range falls well short of the $2 trillion figure some outlets had reported weeks earlier, Fortune noted. Seven strategic partners, including Google Alphabet Inc. ↘ 0.38% and Nvidia ↘ 5.47%, have agreed to buy $26 billion of non-voting stock at the IPO price.cnbc.com+1

The company is expected to price the offering on Wednesday, November 18, and list on the Nasdaq ↗ 1.40% under the ticker "ANT" on Thursday, November 19, CNBC reported. Its partners in the private placement include AMD, Broadcom, Microsoft and TSMC Partners, according to IPOScoop.iposcoop.com+1

CNBC cautioned that predicting a first-day IPO move is "nearly impossible." Still, the gap between the perps and the official range suggests traders expect demand to outrun the price Anthropic and its bankers have set.