Analysts lift Brent 2026 forecast above $90 in Reuters poll

Oil analysts have raised their 2026 price forecasts again. A Reuters poll released October 30 put the expected Brent average above $90 a barrel for the first time since May, because disruptions to Middle East energy flows have not eased. The October survey of 32 economists and analysts forecast Brent at an average of $92.88 a barrel this year and US West Texas Intermediate at $86.60. That compares with $89.05 and $83.90 in September's poll, which had itself been raised from $85.08 for Brent.reuters.com+1

The latest increase shows that analysts now expect the supply shock from the US-Israeli war on Iran, which began in late February, to last longer. The war pushed Brent as high as $126.41 a barrel in April, Reuters reported.reuters.com

Tight physical market

"Constrained Middle Eastern flows, exceptionally tight product markets, and depleted inventories suggest that a full return to pre-war production, trade routes, and shipping conditions will take longer, leaving risks skewed to the upside," UniCredit analyst Tobias Keller told Reuters.reuters.com

Kim Fustier, head of European oil and gas research at HSBC, said oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz had recovered faster than expected, to about 10 million barrels per day. She added that the physical market stayed "abnormally tight" because of steep backwardation, high crude differentials and record shipping costs. According to Reuters, October was the worst month on record for attacks on commercial shipping in and near the strait. Yemen's Houthis also renewed attacks on Saudi Arabia, including on the Ras Tanura refinery.reuters.com

Futures prices reflected the strain. Brent rose on Friday and was heading for a fourth straight monthly gain after a tanker was attacked in the strait. It was on track for a monthly rise of about 13%, as traders prepared for a possible escalation after the US midterm elections, Reuters reported.reuters.com

Demand destruction and OPEC+

Poll participants said high prices are increasingly cutting into consumption. HSBC estimated that about 5 million barrels per day of demand was lost in the second quarter, mostly in lower-income countries. On average, respondents expect demand to fall by 2.5 million bpd in 2026 and then grow by about 2.2 million bpd in 2027, according to the survey.reuters.com

The poll found that lower demand would not be enough to offset the supply shortfall. It projected a market deficit of about 2.7 million bpd in the fourth quarter. Most analysts expect a small surplus of about 290,000 bpd in 2027 if Gulf flows improve.

Seven core OPEC+ members will meet online on Sunday, November 1. Sources told Reuters the group is likely to keep its December output targets unchanged. "Until a peaceful resolution to the Middle East conflict is found, which we do not foresee in 2027, we do not expect (OPEC+) to approve any significant new decisions," said Davide Tabarelli, president of Nomisma Energia.reuters.com