Oil slips as Iran-Qatar talks to end war enter third day

Oil prices fell in early Asian trading on Monday, November 2, after Iranian and Qatari officials held a third straight day of talks on a deal to end the US-Israeli war on Iran. Brent fell back toward $111 a barrel. The Economic Times put Monday's losses at about 2% for Brent and more than 2% for West Texas Intermediate, which slid toward $102.economictimes.com+1

The drop came after a strong run. Brent finished October at its highest level in six months, as traders worried the conflict could flare up again after the US midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3.thehindubusinessline.com

Diplomacy takes some heat out of prices

"Oil is seeing a technical pullback this morning after last week's strong gains," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. He added that "lingering hopes of some form of diplomatic progress, combined with the absence of any meaningful military escalation over the weekend" had cooled prices.finance.yahoo.com

On Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the talks "ongoing and progressing" and said Tehran was prepared for "both defence and diplomacy". The talks center on an Iranian plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if Washington meets Tehran's conditions. Araghchi said those conditions include lifting recent US sanctions, reducing the US military presence in the region and ending the fighting on all fronts. Washington has not publicly responded. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed the talks were continuing, and President Donald Trump said he was in no great hurry to reach a deal.investinglive.com+1

Election risk keeps traders on edge

Trump has said the US will not launch new attacks on Iran before the elections, but he has not ruled out military action afterward. The Wall Street Journal News Corp ↘ 1.37% reported that a senior US military commander briefed Trump on possible military options last week. Waterer said markets were watching for tougher rhetoric on Iran after the vote, which could push Brent toward $120.ndtvprofit.com+2

Supply risks remain in the Strait of Hormuz, where an unidentified projectile hit a tanker leaving the waterway on Thursday, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations. Over the weekend, OPEC+ agreed to keep its production targets unchanged through December.economictimes.com+1

Analysts see big moves possible in either direction. Goldman Sachs The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. ↘ 3.58% estimates crude could reach $120 if attacks on ships escalate, or fall toward $80 if exports return to normal. Saxo Bank expects prices to stay between $70 and $90 even after the war ends, above the pre-war range of $60 to $70.economictimes.com