Africa accounts for two-thirds of ISIS activity, US panel warns on 9/11 anniversary

As the world marks the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks, counterterrorism analysts are offering a sobering assessment: the killing of Osama bin Laden, the dismantling of al-Qaeda's core leadership, and the destruction of the Islamic State's self-proclaimed caliphate have not ended the global terrorist threat. Instead, it has fragmented, spread, and adapted.

Africa Emerges as the New Epicenter

A report released this week by the US House Committee on Homeland Security found that seven of the ten countries recording the highest number of terrorism-related deaths are now in Africa, with more than two-thirds of ISIS's global activity taking place on the continent. The Sahel region south of the Sahara has become a focal point, with Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger accounting for more than half of global terrorism-related deaths.telegraph+2

Al-Qaeda's Sahel affiliate, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), now commands an estimated 7,000 to 8,000 fighters, according to a recent United Nations Security Council report. In June 2026, JNIM claimed responsibility for an attack on the international airport in Niger's capital, Niamey. In April, the group and Tuareg allies launched coordinated attacks across Mali that killed the country's defense minister and forced Russian mercenaries to withdraw from a northern town.irregularwarfare+2

"Nowhere is the threat of global jihadism more severe today than in Africa," the conflict monitor ACLED concluded in a recent analysis cited by The Telegraph.telegraph

A Decentralized, Tech-Driven Threat

Experts describe a transformation in the nature of terrorism itself. Where al-Qaeda once operated through hierarchical command structures and centralized training camps, today's threat landscape is defined by decentralized networks, lone-wolf actors, and digital radicalization. "Training is being imparted on smartphones instead of camps," wrote Lt. Gen. (Ret.) S.L. Narasimhan in The Indian Express. "Recruitment and radicalisation are now through encrypted communications and social media, without physical contact or formal organisation."indianexpress

Lars Berger, professor of terrorism studies at the German Federal University of Administrative Sciences, told DW there has been a "strategic shift" away from direct attacks on the West and toward establishing local structures. "Instead of spectacular acts of violence ordered from the highest levels, there are smaller-scale actions that are more grassroots in nature," he said.dw

Meanwhile, al-Qaeda has rebuilt operations in Afghanistan, with a presence in at least one-third of the country's 34 provinces. The group has resurrected its training camp at Tarnak Farm outside Kandahar — a facility central to pre-9/11 operations, according to the Irregular Warfare Center. A June 2026 UN Security Council meeting underscored ongoing concerns about al-Qaeda's continued presence in Afghanistan despite Taliban assurances.idsa+1

The Unfinished Fight

The House Committee report warned that the overlap between terrorism and cyber capabilities was creating challenges that traditional counterterrorism measures may not adequately address, while artificial intelligence offered both new defensive tools and new risks of exploitation by malicious actors. The committee issued 23 recommendations covering intelligence sharing, aviation security, AI-related cybersecurity standards, and border protection.thesun+1

Tim Willasey-Wilsey, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, cautioned against complacency. "Advances in drone technology in Ukraine since 2022 could provide terrorists with an effective means of delivery at a time when countermeasures are still in their infancy," he said. "As we remember 9/11, it is still too early to celebrate the absence of a successful repeat during that costly quarter-century."telegraph