WTI crude tops $100 as Houthi gains threaten both major oil export routes

Oil prices surged past key psychological thresholds this week as escalating conflict across the Middle East threatened to choke off not one but two of the world's most critical maritime oil routes. Brent crude settled above $101 on Wednesday, September 9, breaching $100 for the first time since late July, and WTI followed through the $100 mark on Thursday morning as physical crude benchmarks that had already been above that level for days pulled futures higher.morningstar+2

The rally reflects a scenario Goldman Sachs ↘ 1.00% had outlined months ago: that the global oil market could absorb disruption at one chokepoint but not at several simultaneously.tradingeconomics+1

Houthi Escalation Opens a Second Front

The immediate trigger was a wave of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian energy facilities on Tuesday, September 8, which wounded 73 people and halted operations at several sites. The strikes targeted infrastructure belonging to Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil company, setting installations ablaze.reuters+3

The attacks carry implications beyond the immediate damage. The Houthis have captured the Red Sea port of Mocha and nearby coastal territory, positioning themselves within reach of both shores of the Bab el-Mandeb strait. That strait has served as Saudi Arabia's primary alternative export corridor since the Strait of Hormuz became contested earlier this year. With Hormuz flows still impaired — no very large crude carrier had exited the strait since September 2, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters — the threat to the Red Sea workaround has forced the market to price a world in which Saudi crude has no uncontested sea route in either direction.forbes+3

Goldman Raises Forecasts, Keeps $120 on the Table

Goldman Sachs responded by lifting its official year-end Brent target to $85 and WTI to $80, each $5 above previous estimates. More consequentially, the bank kept alive its adverse scenario in which Brent could exceed $120 if Gulf output remains roughly 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels into 2027. Analyst Daan Struyven noted that recent attacks raise the odds disruptions will "broaden and intensify," and that the tightest stress sits in refined products and natural gas rather than crude alone.dailyhodl+2

The Wall Street Journal News Corp ↘ 2.07% reported that Goldman now assumes Middle East shipping disruptions will continue into next year under its baseline. HSBC ↘ 0.98% has also raised its forecasts, projecting Brent at $90 for 2026 and $85 for 2027, and does not expect the market to rebalance before mid-2027.energynewsbeat+1

Products Market Flashing Red

Beneath the crude headline, the products market is sending a starker signal. U.S. diesel crack spreads exceeded $100 per barrel in August for the first time on record and have since pushed above $106, surpassing the 2022 post-invasion peak. European diesel cracks have crossed $100 as well. Goldman more than doubled its 2027 diesel-margin forecasts, reflecting the compounding effects of Russian export restrictions, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining capacity, and a structurally thinner global refining system after years of closures.energynewsbeat

Global inventories fell by 69 million barrels in July alone — an average draw of 2.7 million barrels per day, according to IEA data — and seasonal demand typically rises in the fourth quarter. With no clear diplomatic off-ramp in the reporting, the question facing traders is no longer whether prices will spike, but whether the surplus many analysts expected in 2027 will arrive on schedule.energynewsbeat