WTO more than doubles goods trade forecast on AI boom

The World Trade Organization on Thursday raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth this year to 3.9%, more than double the 1.9% it projected in March. It said strong investment in artificial intelligence and supply chains that adapted to the Middle East conflict had kept goods moving. The Geneva-based body now expects goods trade to grow 4.1% in 2027. The March forecast for next year was 2.6%, according to Reuters and AFP, though the Associated Press reported it as 2.9%.bnnbloomberg+3

The goods picture improved, but the outlook for services got worse. The WTO cut its 2026 forecast for services trade growth to 3.3% from 4.8%, citing higher aviation fuel costs tied to the conflict. It also lowered its forecasts for transport and travel services to 0.9% and 0.2%. It expects services trade to rebound by 6.4% in 2027.investing+1

"The numbers reflect trade resilience in action," Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said. "Nevertheless, some have felt the shock more than others, and not everyone can access emerging opportunities like AI."rte

AI goods drive nearly half of growth

Merchandise trade grew 3.5% in the first half of 2026. Demand for AI-related goods such as semiconductors and servers accounted for 47% of that growth by value, and trade in these goods rose 67% from a year earlier. These goods now make up 14.8% of global merchandise trade, up from 7% to 8% between 2016 and 2023.usnews+2

Chief economist Robert Staiger said the WTO, like most forecasters, had been "surprised." Its economists had expected growth in AI goods to slow as the market became saturated. "This actually has not happened," he told reporters, noting that trade in these goods grew 16% in 2024, 31% in 2025 and "an astonishing 67%" in the first half of 2026.guardonline

The gains are highly concentrated. In 2025, the 10 largest traders accounted for about 85% of AI-goods exports. Asia is set to lead trade growth in 2026, with exports projected to rise 9.9%. Middle East exports are forecast to fall 17.2%.uzdaily+1

Energy shock absorbed, risks remain

The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran began in February. It disrupted shipments of oil, gas and fertilizer through the Persian Gulf. Middle Eastern exports of liquefied natural gas fell 47% in the first half and crude exports dropped nearly a quarter. Because other suppliers increased shipments, the global declines were held to about 1% for LNG and 6% for crude.usnews

The WTO expects global GDP to grow 2.6% this year and 2.9% in 2027. It warned that several risks remain: households losing purchasing power to higher fuel and fertilizer costs, the war in Ukraine, and any slowdown in AI investment. Its 2027 forecast assumes the Middle East conflict is resolved in a timely way. The report also found that decoupling between the U.S. and China has sped up. U.S. imports from China fell 29% in 2025.english.news+2