WMO issues most unequivocal El Nino forecast ever, warns of record-breaking event

The World Meteorological Organization has issued its most unequivocal El Niño forecast ever, warning that the climate phenomenon building across the tropical Pacific is on track to become the strongest since modern monitoring began and will persist through at least February 2027.

At a press conference in Geneva on September 3, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said forecasts from the organization's global network showed a nearly 100 percent likelihood that El Niño conditions would continue through February 2027. "If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began," Saulo said. "So literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades."mensjournal+1

UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the phenomenon as being "supersized before our eyes," warning that "the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up."timescolonist

Three Forecasts Point in the Same Direction

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, in its August 13 discussion, gave a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27, with a 69 percent chance that the October-through-December period would exceed the strength of every El Niño on record dating back to 1950. AccuWeather said the event was increasingly likely to become the strongest since at least 1950, noting that daily sea surface temperature readings in the eastern equatorial Pacific have already exceeded 3°C above normal — a level that, if sustained, would set a new record.newsweek+1

"The current El Niño is the strongest on record to date if you take the daily value," AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva told Newsweek. "El Niño typically peaks in the northern hemisphere winter so it looks like this El Niño will continue to strengthen over the coming months and has a good chance to be the strongest ever on record."newsweek

What It Means for Weather and Temperatures

The WMO warned of potential disruptions to rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, with risks of floods, drought and extreme heat continuing well into 2027. For the United States, forecasters expect an active southern storm track favoring heavier precipitation across the southern tier, while the Southwest and southern Rockies carry above-normal snowfall odds. The Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies lean drier and warmer.autoblog+2

In Canada, climatologist David Phillips of Environment and Climate Change Canada predicted a "soft and open and tame kind of winter" dominated by Pacific rather than Arctic air, with less snow, more rain in the West and potential drought conditions by spring.ctvnews

2027 Could Be the Warmest Year on Record

Scientists noted that the 2023-24 El Niño helped make 2024 the warmest year on record globally. The concern now is that the developing event, unfolding against a backdrop of unprecedented ocean warmth, could push 2027 past that mark. "If we see a record El Niño, there is a very high likelihood that global temperatures in 2027 will be the warmest on record," DaSilva told Newsweek. Phillips was equally direct: "There's no doubt in everybody's mind that in 2027, after El Niño dies away, the residual heat will still be warming the air and the oceans."ctvnews+1