UN warns El Niño will rapidly strengthen into a ‘strong’ event this summer

The World Meteorological Organization on Friday raised its forecast for the rapid emergence of a strong El Niño, warning that the climate phenomenon has already taken hold in the tropical Pacific and will quickly gain strength between July and September, driving global temperatures higher and intensifying extreme weather worldwide.

A Rapid Escalation

"El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events in many parts of the world," the WMO said in its latest Global Seasonal Climate Update. WMO climate scientist Alvaro Silva told a press conference that since last month, forecasters have "much more confidence that strong El Niño conditions will develop," citing broad agreement among prediction models.bssnews+2

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that the phenomenon "will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions". The July-to-September rainfall outlook is consistent with a strengthening El Niño, with below-normal rainfall forecast across the Indian subcontinent and much of Australia, and above-normal rainfall in portions of the southwestern United States.news.yahoo+1

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center has separately confirmed that El Niño conditions are present and expects them to strengthen into winter 2026-27, estimating a 63% chance of a "very strong" event that would rank among the largest on record since 1950.cpc.ncep.noaa

India's Monsoon Already Suffering

The developing El Niño has already left its mark on India's southwest monsoon, which opened June 2026 with a 40% rainfall deficit, according to Down To Earth. Central India has been worst hit, with over three-quarters of districts reporting deficient to no rain. India's government has identified 315 districts as vulnerable to weak monsoon conditions and established an "El Niño Monitoring Cell" to track the crisis. The India Meteorological Department forecast that monsoon rainfall will likely reach only 90% of its long-period average, placing it in the "below normal" category.downtoearth+2

Israel Braces for Extreme Winter

Looking ahead to the 2026-27 rainy season, the Israel Meteorological Service published reports warning that the strong El Niño could bring rainfall totaling 140% to 145% of the multiyear average in some regions, raising the probability of flash floods, heavy snowfall, and extreme weather events. The service described the coming season as having "great potential for a rainy, event-heavy winter that includes extreme events".ynetnews

The WMO's updated forecast suggests El Niño's effects will persist into 2027, with some agencies warning it could make next year the hottest on record, surpassing 2024.reuters+1