Ukrainian strikes cut 30% of Russian refining, sources say

Ukrainian drone attacks since late October have taken out about 30% of Russia's oil refining capacity, two industry sources told Reuters on Nov. 10. The losses make Russia's domestic fuel shortages harder to fix at a time when Moscow is shipping diesel abroad under an export deal with US President Donald Trump.reuters.com

Nine refineries hit in a week

According to Reuters, attacks over the past week disrupted operations or caused emergencies at nine of Russia's 35 major refineries, including plants in Ryazan, Yaroslavl and the Volga region. The sources said the refineries hit since late October have a combined nameplate capacity of about 300,000 metric tons per day, or 2.2 million barrels. Russia's total primary refining capacity is about 930,000 tons per day. At the end of October, Russian plants were processing around 700,000 tons of crude a day. The sources estimate that actual processing could fall by up to 200,000 tons per day.reuters.com

The strikes picked up again after an energy-infrastructure ceasefire that Trump announced between Kyiv and Moscow failed to hold at the end of October, Reuters reported. The Yaroslavl refinery was hit overnight on Nov. 2, and Ryazan, one of Russia's largest refineries, appeared to come under attack later that week, according to earlier Reuters reporting. Overnight into Monday, Nov. 9, a drone set fire to the Kirishi refinery, Russia's second-largest. Leningrad region Governor Alexander Drozdenko said the fire was contained and that a woman was killed by falling drone debris in Vsevolozhsk.english.aawsat.com+3

Diesel deal under strain

Trump announced the deal on Oct. 9. Under it, Russia agreed to export 300,000 tons of diesel right away, followed by 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons after that, with the aim of lowering fuel prices before the US midterm elections. In a Kommersant article published Nov. 10, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the agreement "immediately brought prices down". He also accused Ukraine of ignoring Trump's calls to stop hitting Russian energy targets.reuters.com

Delivery has been uneven. Meduza reported that several tankers carrying Russian diesel to the United States changed course, apparently because they could not find buyers. Meanwhile, fuel shortages have reportedly returned to several Russian regions.meduza.io+1

Kyiv's rationale

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last week that Kyiv would keep striking Russia's oil sector in response to Russian attacks on Ukrainian power plants, heating systems and water supply. He said Moscow had "refused the de-escalation steps that our partners talked about". The latest damage comes as US-brokered Russia-Ukraine talks are scheduled for Nov. 10–11 in Abu Dhabi.oilprice.com+1