UK Met Office predicts strongest El Nino in over a century

The UK Met Office warned Friday that the El Niño event currently developing over the Pacific Ocean is likely to be the strongest in living memory and the largest such event since the 19th century, with sea surface temperatures forecast to exceed 3 degrees Celsius above normal when the phenomenon peaks later this year.

Unprecedented Intensity

Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, told the BBC that "we are expecting the biggest El Niño for over a century, peaking at something over three degrees – that is unheard-of in modern climate records." He called it "an unprecedented event," adding: "I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts."france24+1

A typical El Niño causes a rise of 1 to 2 degrees Celsius in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures, with 2 degrees considered a major event. The current trajectory far exceeds that threshold. Reuters Thomson Reuters Corporation ↗ 1.63% reported the Met Office said "2026 is going to be renowned for the development of the largest El Niño in living memory."reuters

The Met Office also said 2027 was "very likely" to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record, a projection echoed by the Washington Post, which reported more than an 80 percent chance of that outcome.washingtonpost+1

Global Preparedness Efforts

The World Food Programme warned earlier this month that the 2026-2027 El Niño could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027, with the phenomenon expected to peak between September and December 2026.wfp

Nepal is among the countries mobilizing in response. On Friday, Nepal's Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation Minister Biraj Bhakta Shrestha opened a national workshop in Lalitpur titled "Super El Niño and Climate Risk: Impacts on Water, Food, Energy, and Disaster Resilience." He called for urgent preparedness, warning of potential water shortages in irrigation systems and prolonged droughts affecting agricultural production.english.kathmandupati

A Rapidly Escalating Event

El Niño was officially declared by NOAA in June, when the agency estimated a 63 percent chance the event would grow into a very strong one, projecting Pacific waters could warm 2.4 degrees Celsius by November. That forecast has since been surpassed by the Met Office's latest projections of more than 3 degrees.science

The BBC reported the phenomenon could bring increased rainfall and storms to the UK this autumn and winter, while regions near the tropical Pacific face heightened risks of drought and wildfire. NWS meteorologist Brian Garcia discussed preparedness for the 2026 El Niño's storm variability at a California community meeting on August 7.coastsidebuzz+1