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Russia's crude oil output has entered a new phase of decline as Ukrainian drone strikes on export infrastructure and tightening Western sanctions compound long-term production challenges, according to a revised forecast from Rystad Energy published this week.

Global oil prices have fallen sharply to pre-war levels as production across the Persian Gulf recovers at a pace that has surprised analysts, just weeks after the United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire and the Strait of Hormuz…