Strategy files plan to sell Bitcoin amid market rout

Bitcoin ↗ 0.15% enters the final days of June trading near $60,000, down more than 50% from its all-time high of approximately $126,000 reached in October 2025, as analysts warn a deeper decline could be ahead before the cycle finds its bottom.

The cryptocurrency is on track for a rare back-to-back quarterly loss, with the market facing headwinds from sticky inflation, massive ETF outflows, and lingering questions about one of its largest institutional backers.coindesk+1

A Rare On-Chain Signal

Chris Sullivan, co-founder and portfolio manager at digital asset hedge fund Hyperion Decimus, told CoinDesk that Bitcoin is approaching a critical inflection point. Sullivan said four proprietary on-chain indicators have aligned for only the sixth time in Bitcoin's 15-year history — with every prior instance marking a cycle bottom.cryptonews+1

However, Sullivan cautioned that final confirmation is still missing. "We have literally like every box checked, except for a final pattern," he said. "Either we have to break above the $82,000 pivot to confirm, or we have one final low, call it between $54,000 and $57,000. Perhaps a wick to $48,000 to capitulate. One of those two conditions we expect to happen in the next 90 days."cryptonews

Options and Derivatives Paint a Bearish Picture

The options market reflects deep pessimism. Roughly $10.6 billion in Bitcoin options expired on Deribit on June 26, with puts clustered around the $60,000 to $75,000 range and most call open interest rendered worthless at current levels. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen $6.4 billion in outflows over the past 30 days — the largest monthly redemption since these products launched in 2024.thestreet+2

Bitcoin now trades below its 200-week moving average, a level that has historically marked prolonged bear markets. The 200-day moving average sits well above current prices, reinforcing the depth of the downturn. Meanwhile, analyst Aralez projects a final market bottom near $46,000 before a recovery rally in the fourth quarter of 2026.tradingview+2

Macro Headwinds Compound the Pressure

The backdrop has grown increasingly hostile. A hotter-than-expected May PCE inflation reading that came in at 4.1% has made Federal Reserve rate cuts less likely, removing a potential catalyst for risk assets. Strategy MicroStrategy Incorporated ↗ 6.10%, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, faces a securities investigation by Rosen Law Firm and filed an 8-K on June 29 outlining a $200 million share repurchase program alongside a BTC liquidation strategy.investing+1

Prediction markets on Polymarket now price a 64% chance that Bitcoin falls below $50,000 before year-end, with a 46% probability of reaching $45,000. Whether that level materializes as a capitulation wick or the market reclaims $82,000 first may define the next phase of the cycle.facebook