Hormuz ship crossings drop to seven as oil posts second weekly gain

Only seven commodity ships sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, half the previous day's tally, as the vital waterway that once carried nearly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments remained largely shut amid the stalemated U.S.-Iran conflict. Oil prices were on track Friday for a second consecutive weekly gain, with Brent crude trading around $93-94 a barrel after climbing more than 7% over the prior five sessions.reuters+1

Single-Digit Transits Signal Prolonged Crisis

Data from shiptracker Kpler, cited by Reuters Thomson Reuters Corporation ↘ 0.33%, showed that of Thursday's seven transits, four ships entered and three exited the waterway. None were very large crude carriers or LNG tankers, underscoring the near-total avoidance of the strait by major commodity shippers.reuters

The disruption intensified after President Trump pledged "economic warfare" against Tehran, threatening sweeping sanctions on any nation providing financial support to Iran. The threat effectively extinguished near-term hopes for a diplomatic resolution that would reopen Qatari LNG export corridors and restore normal tanker traffic.investing

During the previous session on Thursday, Brent crude futures settled at $94.39 a barrel, up 61 cents, as markets priced in the prolonged supply squeeze.reuters

European Gas Hits Five-Month High

The ripple effects extended well beyond crude. Dutch front-month natural gas futures advanced to their highest level since March 19, when earlier strikes on Middle East energy infrastructure rattled markets. European benchmark contracts posted a weekly gain of over 7%, their second straight week of advances.investing

Continental gas storage stands at roughly 60% of capacity, trailing five-year seasonal norms by approximately 17 percentage points, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data. The combination of a hot summer driving gas-fired power demand and delayed LNG deliveries has left Europe facing a potential winter supply crunch.investing

Binary Outcome for Energy Markets

Market analysts at StoneX ↗ 3.44% described crude oil as trading a "two-scenario geopolitical structure" with no middle ground — escalation on one side, a lasting U.S.-Iran resolution on the other. Razan Hilal, a StoneX market analyst, noted that crude oil is pricing "rising uncertainty over the U.S. Iran geopolitical situation" directly onto charts, moving before any physical supply disruption is confirmed.stonex

Prior to the conflict, flows through the strait supported about one-fifth of global oil consumption. In late June, the strait had briefly returned to near-normal traffic levels before renewed hostilities collapsed transit volumes back to single digits.New York Post+1