Smartphone shipments drop 20% to lowest Q3 since 2013

Global smartphone shipments fell 20% year on year to 254.7 million units in the third quarter of 2026, the lowest third-quarter total since 2013, research firm Omdia said on October 29. Rising device prices cut into demand, and emerging markets took the biggest hit. Distributors and retailers also held back on restocking before the holidays because higher device costs meant tying up more working capital, according to the firm's release.newshub.medianet.com.au+1

Other trackers found a similar slump. IDC put the decline at 22%, to 255.3 million units, the steepest drop it has recorded for any quarter. It blamed an AI-driven memory crisis that has pushed memory costs up about 350% in a year. Counterpoint Research also estimated a 20% fall and called it the weakest third quarter since 2012.idc.com+1

Premium brands hold up

Samsung stayed the largest vendor with 57.8 million units, down 5%. Omdia said its Galaxy A series helped it compete while rival Android brands struggled with memory supply and higher prices, Omdia said. Apple ↘ 1.23% shipped 56.5 million iPhones, flat from a year earlier. Demand in China and North America made up for weakness elsewhere, and retailers stocked up ahead of expected price increases. In September, Apple launched the iPhone 18 Pro models and its first foldable, the iPhone Duo, and pushed the base iPhone 18 to 2027.newshub.medianet.com.au

Chinese brands fell further. Xiaomi shipped 30.7 million units, down 29%. OPPO, which includes realme and OnePlus, fell 39% to 23.4 million, and vivo dropped 33% to 19.3 million, according to Omdia's data.newshub.medianet.com.au

Emerging markets hit hardest

"Emerging markets, once the backbone of global smartphone volume growth, are now facing the greatest pressure from rising prices," said Sanyam Chaurasia, principal analyst at Omdia, in the release. Africa fell the most, down 39%. Asia-Pacific excluding Greater China, the Middle East and Latin America each dropped more than 20%. Weaker currencies and inflation pushed some buyers toward refurbished phones or feature phones. North America held up better, helped by operator financing and trade-in programs.newshub.medianet.com.au

The weakness extends to big markets as well. Omdia estimated earlier this month that India's shipments fell 26% to 35.8 million units, while mainland China's fell 12% to 59.3 million.omdia.tech.informa.com+1

Outlook stays weak

Omdia expects global shipments to fall 12% in 2026. "Further price increases and limited room for promotional discounts" are expected to weigh on holiday demand, said Amber Liu, practice leader at Omdia, according to the release. The firm expects the market to shrink again in 2027 but more slowly, since shortages of high-bandwidth and conventional memory are likely to keep costs high. The Register reported that Omdia's forecast calls for a further 6% decline next year. IDC does not expect a recovery before 2028.idc.com+2