Russian wheat exports hit decade low amid Black Sea attacks

Russia's grain exports are on track to fall to their lowest August level in a decade as escalating attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea create severe shipping bottlenecks at the country's southern ports, compounding a disruption that has rattled global commodity markets for weeks.

Shipping Collapse Deepens

Agricultural consultancy SovEcon projects Russia will export between 3 million and 3.4 million metric tons of wheat this month — well below the five-year August average of 5 million tons and potentially the lowest August total since the 2016–17 agricultural season. Independent consultancy ProZerno forecasts overall grain exports will fall to roughly 2.5 million metric tons amid congestion across the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, compared with a five-year August average of 5.7 million tons.themoscowtimes+1

The disruption follows a punishing July in which Russia's grain exports fell nearly 38 percent year-over-year, with just 2.03 million tons shipped. Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, and Ukraine, also a major agricultural exporter, have been targeting each other's export facilities and commercial shipping in recent weeks. Ukraine has said repeated Russian missile and drone attacks have reduced its Black Sea grain export capacity by about one-third.facebook+3

Domestic Glut, Rising Global Prices

The export logjam has left Russia's domestic market oversupplied, pushing local prices down by as much as 450 rubles per ton over the past week as farmers struggle to move harvests. Despite foreign buyers pulling back due to soaring shipping costs, Russia's Agriculture Ministry announced it would raise the wheat export tax for the week of August 12–18.themoscowtimes

Globally, the tensions have driven wheat prices higher. The International Food Policy Research Institute noted in early August that Russian missile attacks on grain infrastructure and the broader disruption to Black Sea shipping are threatening a trade artery responsible for nearly a third of the world's wheat supply. Russia's main grain exporters union has warned that continued Ukrainian drone strikes on ships and ports could shut down Black Sea grain exports entirely, raising the risk of hunger in Africa and the Middle East.ifpri+2

Markets Eye WASDE Report

Traders are now looking ahead to the USDA's August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, scheduled for release on Wednesday, August 12, at noon ET. The report will provide updated projections on global supply, demand, and ending stocks at a time when geopolitical risks in both the Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz are adding uncertainty to commodity markets.dakotanewsnetwork+2

Meanwhile, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies has lowered its forecast for Russia's 2026 grain harvest from 140 million to 138.5 million metric tons, reducing its estimate for total export capacity in the 2026–27 season from 61.5 million to 60 million tons.themoscowtimes