Russia lowers 2026 gas output and export forecasts as Europe exits

Russia's Economy Ministry has lowered its 2026 natural gas production and export forecasts, according to a draft government document first reported by Reuters, as the European Union prepares to fully phase out Russian gas purchases starting next year.reuters

Production and Export Numbers

Natural gas production is now expected to reach 683.1 billion cubic meters in 2026, down 5.3 bcm from a May projection, though still above the 662.7 bcm produced in 2025. Seaborne liquefied natural gas exports are forecast at 35 million metric tons, up from 30.3 million tons in 2025 but 5.3 million tons below the previous estimate. LNG exports are expected to continue rising in coming years, but at a slower pace than earlier anticipated.pgjonline+2

The revised forecasts will be used to update Russia's federal budget through 2029. Reuters also reported earlier this month that Russia had downgraded its 2026 oil output forecast to a 17-year low, pointing to broader constraints across the country's hydrocarbon sectors.reuters

Europe's Retreat from Russian Gas

The downward revisions reflect the collapse of Russia's once-dominant energy relationship with Europe. Russian gas exports to Europe fell 44% in 2025 to just 18 bcm — the lowest level since the mid-1970s — following the closure of the Ukrainian transit route. That figure stands in stark contrast to the roughly 180 bcm per year Russia was piping to Europe in 2018–2019.newsukraine.rbc+1

The EU's REPowerEU regulation mandates a complete phase-out of Russian LNG imports by the end of 2026 and pipeline gas by late 2027. According to the European Commission, the share of Russian gas in EU imports fell from 45% in 2021 to 12% in 2025.ua

The Kremlin has maintained that Europe is hurting itself by purchasing more expensive gas on the spot market and says Moscow remains ready to restart supplies, including via the surviving leg of the Nord Stream pipeline.reuters

Wider Context

The forecast cuts arrive against the backdrop of an intensifying conflict in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, meeting with President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly on September 22, said he proposed an "energy ceasefire" under which Ukraine would halt strikes on Russian energy infrastructure if Moscow stopped targeting Ukrainian power systems. Trump, meanwhile, said in a social media post on Monday that Russia had "unfortunately lost control" of its diesel industry after Ukrainian drone strikes destroyed multiple refineries.ibtimes

As Europe permanently decouples from Russian energy, Moscow is attempting to redirect gas flows toward Asian markets. But limited pipeline infrastructure to China and rising logistics costs for rerouting LNG shipments mean the European market cannot be quickly replaced.streamlinefeed+1