Rabobank raises Brent forecast to $90 as Hormuz disruptions persist

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has raised its Brent crude forecast to $85 per barrel for the third quarter of 2026, an $11 increase from its previous estimate, as ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to drain global oil inventories and keep markets tight.ogj+2

Inventory Drawdowns Drive Revised Outlook

In its August Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA said global oil inventories fell by an average of 4.2 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, with a further drawdown of 3.8 million barrels per day expected in the third quarter. The agency now forecasts Brent to average $86.81 per barrel for the full year 2026, up from a previous estimate of $81.91, with West Texas Intermediate averaging $80.88 per barrel.indexbox+1

The EIA expects prices to ease as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually recovers and shut-in production returns. Brent is forecast to fall to $78 per barrel in the fourth quarter and to $69 per barrel in 2027. However, according to Reuters Thomson Reuters Corporation ↗ 5.56%, some Middle East producers are likely to struggle to restore output to pre-conflict levels by end of 2027, even if trade patterns normalize by early next year. The EIA estimates roughly 600,000 barrels per day of Middle East oil could remain offline through year-end.linkedin+2

Rabobank Sees Higher Prices for Longer

Rabobank holds a more bullish view, raising its Brent forecast to $90 per barrel for both the third and fourth quarters of 2026, up from earlier estimates of $88 and $86 respectively. The Dutch bank has also lifted its 2027 forecast to $86 per barrel and its 2028 estimate to $79.business-standard+2

Rabobank analysts Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit said August has brought a new equilibrium defined by economic sanctions and low-scale conflict between the U.S. and Iran, but they see little progress toward resolving broader geopolitical tensions. They consider a short-term agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping unlikely given limited common ground between the two countries.indexbox+1

Price Risks Remain Tilted to the Upside

Since the West Asia conflict began earlier in 2026, Brent prices surged from around $70 per barrel to above $120 before cooling as tensions between the U.S. and Iran showed signs of easing. A stalemate over the Strait has since pushed prices back up to around $86 per barrel. Rabobank expects Brent to remain volatile, with $70–$75 as the lower support zone and $95–$100 as the upper range, warning that a renewed disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandab strait could push prices above $100 per barrel.rediff+2