NATO drafts drone, AI ‘Theory of Victory’ against Russia

NATO's top military commander is preparing a strategy for a fast victory if Russia attacks the alliance's eastern flank. The plan relies on combining drones and artificial intelligence with conventional forces, Bloomberg reported on Monday after seeing an unclassified version of the document.bloomberg

Supreme Allied Commander Europe Gen. Alexus Grynkewich is set to present the document, called "Theory of Victory," in Poland on Oct. 12. Senior officials and diplomats told Bloomberg it is meant to spell out how the alliance would respond to an invasion of NATO territory.unn+1

How the plan would work

According to Bloomberg's reporting, a NATO hit by an attack would try to stop the invasion with ground forces backed by the Eastern Flank Deterrence Initiative. That concept is built on low-cost drones, systems that need few crew and AI-powered targeting. "Once it had freedom of maneuver, it would seek to destroy enemy command and control in order to achieve a rapid and overwhelming defeat of Russian forces," the outlet wrote.pravda+1

The strategy also stresses that NATO is a defensive alliance and must avoid unintended provocations. It calls for allies to respond together to hybrid threats, meaning hostile acts that stay below the threshold of open conflict. Its stated goal is to show enough readiness that an adversary concludes it cannot win. Sources said the document is also meant to show allies how new capabilities that emerged after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 fit alongside traditional weapons, and to push for more defense investment.unn+1

Grynkewich's spokesperson, Col. Martin O'Donnell, would not discuss details. "The Supreme Allied Commander Europe's theory of victory is simple: maintain NATO's advantage," he said. "Given the unsettled and complex global security environment, we need to set conditions now to deter aggression and, if necessary, win if attacked".pravda

Spending debates and U.S. drawdown

The plan comes as European allies raise military budgets and argue over how to split the money between tanks and other conventional weapons and the newer technologies that have become central to the war in Ukraine. Over the summer, Washington sent allies a questionnaire about their defense spending and their support for President Donald Trump's policies. The answers are meant to guide planned cuts to U.S. military assets committed to Europe. The survey also asked whether allies still had forces available for Grynkewich's defense plans.unn

Rising tension on the flank

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has said he sees no sign that Russia is preparing a conventional attack on the alliance, though he warned that Europe must be ready for hybrid attacks. Martin Jäger, head of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service, has said he sees a risk of violent conflict with Russia. Estonia is moving a key brigade from Tapa to Jõhvi, about 50 kilometers from the Russian border. Lithuania and Poland are drafting a plan to evacuate civilians from the Baltic states if needed.azernews+1