Macquarie latest bank to slash oil forecasts on Hormuz deal

Macquarie on Monday cut its 2026 Brent forecast to $80 and 2027 to $75, joining Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley , and Citi in repricing oil lower.bloomberg+1
The revisions follow a June 14 U.S.-Iran framework deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, with Goldman now expecting Gulf exports to normalize by late July.nbcnews+1
Brent and WTI benchmarks have fallen more than 10% since the deal was announced, as markets shift from war-premium pricing to an oversupply outlook.wsj

Major Wall Street banks have sharply cut their oil price forecasts in the wake of the U.S.-Iran peace framework and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, unwinding months of war-premium pricing that had kept crude elevated above $100 per barrel earlier this year.

Goldman Sachs The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. lowered its fourth-quarter 2026 Brent crude forecast to $80 per barrel from $90, and its 2027 average to $75 from $80, citing a one-month acceleration in the expected normalization of Persian Gulf exports. Morgan Stanley cut its Q4 Dated Brent estimate to $90 from $100 and sees $80 next year. Citi slashed its Q3 and Q4 2026 Brent projections to $75 and $70, respectively, and dropped its 2027 forecast to $65 from $80. On Monday, Macquarie joined the wave, cutting its 2026 Brent outlook to $80 and its 2027 forecast to $75.cnbc+5

The Deal That Changed the Calculus

The catalyst was the June 14 announcement by President Donald Trump and Iranian representatives of a memorandum of understanding to end hostilities and reopen the strait. The 14-point agreement, formally released on June 17, commits the U.S. to lifting its naval blockade within 30 days while Iran ensures safe commercial passage through the Persian Gulf. A signing ceremony took place on June 19 in Switzerland, initiating a 60-day window for final negotiations.nbcnews+3

Follow-up talks in Switzerland concluded on Monday with mediators from Pakistan and Qatar announcing a "roadmap towards finalizing an agreement within 60 days," including a new communication channel to "prevent incidents and miscommunication" in the strait.aljazeera

Market Response

Oil prices have fallen sharply since the deal was announced. WTI crude futures closed at $73.21 on June 23, while Brent traded near $77.94 at the open that day — both benchmarks down more than 10% from levels the prior week. On Tuesday, crude continued drifting lower as traders bet on accelerating supply recovery.youtube+2

Goldman Sachs now expects Persian Gulf exports to return to pre-conflict levels by end of July, a month earlier than previously assumed. Morgan Stanley estimates 50% of lost output could be restored by September and 80% by December. Despite forecasting a surplus of 3.2 million barrels per day in 2027, Goldman expects prices to hold near long-term fair values due to low inventories and strategic stockpiling exceeding one million barrels per day.investing+2

The rapid repricing marks a dramatic reversal from April, when Citi warned Brent could spike to $150 if Hormuz disruptions persisted through June. Instead, the market has flipped from a war-premium shortage to an oversupply outlook in a matter of weeks.energynow

Sources (30)