Lithuania says Russia planning attacks on infrastructure

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda warned on Tuesday that intelligence indicates Russia may be preparing targeted attacks on critical infrastructure in Lithuania and other Baltic states, in what he described as an effort to test NATO unity. Nauseda said reports from Lithuanian intelligence services suggest Moscow could be planning strikes on energy and communications infrastructure using conventional or other means.reuters+2

The warning came as Latvia's President Edgars Rinkēvičs separately confirmed that acts of sabotage by Russia are already taking place in the Baltic states. Rinkēvičs said a full-scale invasion by Russia remains impossible given Moscow's troop commitments in Ukraine, but that various provocations are underway and likely to continue. Latvia's Foreign Minister Baiba Braze said Russia is attempting "all types of provocations" as the war in Ukraine grinds on.news.liga+1

Sikorski Warns of False-Flag Operation

Poland's Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski warned that Russia could stage a false-flag operation using Ukrainian drones to create a pretext for striking a NATO member state. Sikorski previously told CBS News he "wouldn't exclude the Russians doing some kind of false flag operation against Russian territory in order to have a pretext for hitting one of the NATO countries".cbsnews+2

"We need to communicate to Putin that we know what he's up to and that we will not be taken in and that this would be completely unacceptable," Sikorski said.cbsnews

Context and Caveats

The warnings follow months of escalating tensions along NATO's eastern flank. In late June, Latvian intelligence said it saw "indications that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic countries or Poland," including potential drone incursions, missile launches, and cyber attacks designed to send the message: "stop supporting Ukraine, or you will have your own problems".irishtimes

However, Baltic security officials have cautioned that no concrete plan for an imminent attack has been identified. An Estonian security official told Delfi earlier this month: "I have not received any information that a political decision has been made to actually carry out a provocation." A second Baltic intelligence source said there is "no known date, no concrete plan, and no designated organizer for such a provocation".lrt

Lithuania's Ministry of Defence has similarly stated there are no signs Russia is preparing a large-scale military attack on the Baltic states, while acknowledging the threat of sabotage — including arson or other actions against critical infrastructure — remains high. NATO launched the Baltic Sentry operation earlier this year to counter sabotage targeting undersea energy and communication cables in the region.pravda+1