Iran shifts to guerrilla tactics, cutting Hormuz oil flows

Iran has turned to a guerrilla-style campaign against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, using bomb-laden underwater drones, rocket-propelled grenades and crews that attach limpet mines to hulls. The Wall Street Journal News Corp ↗ 4.15% reported that the goal is to choke off oil leaving the Persian Gulf and put pressure on the Trump administration while negotiations stall, citing regional officials, security firms and analysts. The campaign appears to be working. Ship tracker Kpler estimated that oil flows through the strait averaged about 7.8 million barrels a day in the week through Nov. 1, or around 45% of prewar levels. Crude flows had been close to prewar levels earlier in October, according to the Journal, which noted that the figures are preliminary.wsj.com

A shadow war at sea

October had the most attacks in the strait of any month since the war began, with the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations center (UKMTO) logging more than 35 incidents. At least five vessels have been hit so far in November, the Journal reported. In late October, a small boat attached two explosive devices to a tanker's hull northeast of Khasab, Oman. The blasts started an engine-room fire that briefly disabled the ship, UKMTO said. Officials told the Journal that Iran has also used underwater drones since late August. They said Iran now relies on human spotters hidden among fishing boats rather than coastal radars, which U.S. airstrikes have repeatedly targeted.english.aawsat.com+1

"Iran can inflict significant damage at little cost," Alessio Patalano, a maritime warfare expert at King's College London, told the Journal.wsj.com

Attacks continue this week

On Tuesday, two projectiles struck a tanker's engine room about 14 nautical miles northeast of Limah, Oman, UKMTO reported. Maritime security firm Vanguard Tech identified the vessel as the Barbados-flagged supertanker Grit, Seatrade Maritime reported. An Indian-crewed dhow was also attacked, according to ABC News. On Wednesday, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said four "non-compliant" tankers had hit naval mines and were burning, CBS News reported. Gulf officials say claims like these are meant to create panic about whether U.S. mine-clearing has worked, the Journal reported.aljazeera.com+4

Washington insists it holds control

The U.S. military says the waterway is clear of Iranian mines. Adm. Brad Cooper, head of Central Command, said after flying over the strait last week that "I didn't see the IRGC out there, at all," the Journal reported. The U.S. struck Iran's Qeshm Island on Monday, and President Trump said the strikes hit an anti-aircraft facility, Al Jazeera reported.aljazeera.com+1

Brent crude traded around $102 a barrel on Tuesday, compared with just over $70 before the war. Eurasia Group analyst Gregory Brew said Tehran "can keep it violent, they can keep risks to shipping high, they can keep costs high, they can keep oil prices high," according to the Journal.wsj.com