IEA says global gas demand to fall for third time this decade

The European Union will need to increase its liquefied natural gas imports by roughly 13% over 2025 levels to meet summer demand and reach its 90% storage target before winter, the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) said in a report published on Monday. The warning comes as storage levels remain well below seasonal norms and a transatlantic lobbying effort threatens to weaken one of the bloc's marquee climate policies.mondovisione+1

Storage Deficit Deepens

EU gas storage stood at around 28% of capacity at the start of the injection season on April 1, below levels recorded in any of the three prior years. By late June, inventories had recovered to roughly 46–48% — still about 15 percentage points below the five-year average for that time of year. ACER noted that while the more ambitious 90% target requires a 13% jump in LNG imports, a relaxed 80% threshold remains achievable at 2025 import volumes. The EU imported a record 146 billion cubic metres of LNG in 2025.global-energy-flow+3

Ongoing conflict in the Middle East has removed an estimated 15% of global LNG supply from the market, driving up prices and weakening the economic case for storage injections. The disruptions have slowed refill rates, with analysts warning that at the current pace, EU storage could reach only about 72% by November 1.europeangashub+1

US-Led Campaign Targets Methane Rules

Simultaneously, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and American oil executives have pressed the European Commission to delay new methane emissions rules set to take effect on January 1, 2027. In a joint letter in late June, the United States, Qatar, Nigeria, and Algeria warned the regulations could disrupt Europe's gas supply chains.neworleanscitybusiness+3

The campaign has gained traction: at least 11 to 12 EU member states now back calls for a three-year postponement. The Netherlands is among the coalition members citing energy security concerns. Climate advocates have criticized the effort. "Big Oil's campaign to stop EU methane restrictions is working," the Business & Human Rights Resource Centre reported in late June.nltimes+2

Global Demand Set to Contract

Adding another layer of complexity, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday that global natural gas demand is expected to fall by about 0.5% — or 20 billion cubic metres — in 2026, the third annual contraction this decade. The IEA attributed the decline primarily to elevated prices pushing power generators and industrial users toward alternative fuels, with Asian demand down roughly 1% in the first half of the year as coal regained ground.economymiddleeast+2

The convergence of tight supply, low European reserves, and geopolitical uncertainty leaves EU policymakers navigating between energy security imperatives and their climate commitments — with winter approaching and the margin for error shrinking.