Gulf oil exports top 10M bpd in June on record UAE flows

Oil prices held steady near recent lows as Gulf oil exports jumped sharply in June, driven by record shipments from the United Arab Emirates, though lingering regional tensions continued to cloud the outlook for the waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world's crude.

Gulf Exports Top 10 Million Barrels Per Day

Combined crude and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran rose by more than 3.5 million barrels per day in June to reach 10.07 million bpd, according to Reuters ↗ 5.06%, citing data from cargo analytics firm Kpler. Vortexa estimated flows at 10.2 million bpd, up from 7 million bpd in May but still well below the 16.5 million bpd shipped a year earlier.egyptoil-gas+1

The UAE led the recovery, with exports reaching a record 3.7 million to 3.8 million bpd — more than 1 million bpd above May levels, according to Kpler, Vortexa, and LSEG data. Abu Dhabi crude loadings averaged 4 million bpd between June 1 and June 29, surpassing pre-war levels of 3.4 million bpd, Vortexa senior oil analyst Emma Li said. Saudi Arabia's exports rose by 768,000 bpd to 4.52 million bpd, while Iraq and Kuwait each recovered to around 800,000 bpd.reuters+2

The surge followed a June 17 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding that established a 60-day ceasefire and called for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.thehill+1

Market Structure Shifts, Bearish Forecasts Mount

The rebound in Gulf supply pushed a key oil market indicator into bearish territory. The front-month Brent time-spread flipped into contango — where the nearest contract trades below the next month — for the first time since the Iran war began in late February, Reuters reported on June 24. The shift signals that traders expect near-term oversupply as barrels flow back into the market.bloomberg+1

Citigroup added to the bearish chorus on July 3, forecasting that Brent could fall to $60 to $65 a barrel by year-end as the geopolitical risk premium fades. "We continue to recommend selling any summer rallies," the bank's analysts wrote.finance.yahoo+1

Tensions Persist Despite Recovery

Despite the overall export recovery, shipping patterns remain fragile. Iran's joint military command warned on July 2 that tankers must use Tehran's approved routes through the strait or face a "forceful response," ratcheting up tensions over a waterway that remains central to ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations. Vessel movements through the strait continue to be divided between an Iranian-overseen northern corridor and a southern route along Oman's coastline, with recent security incidents reducing traffic on the latter, logistics firm Kuehne+Nagel reported.clickorlando+1

The weekend strikes between the U.S. and Iran on June 28 briefly disrupted traffic before both sides agreed to stand down and resume talks in Doha.aljazeera+1