Gulf allies brace for US strike on Iran after midterms

America's Gulf allies are preparing for a possible new round of US-Israeli strikes on Iran soon after Tuesday's midterm elections. They expect Iran to answer by hitting infrastructure across their countries. Four European officials told Reuters that the US has gathered enough forces in the region to attack Iran at short notice, possibly as soon as this week. "War is coming," said a fifth European official who is in close contact with Gulf leaders.reuters.com

This fear dominated the IISS Manama Dialogue security conference in Bahrain over the weekend. It follows President Donald Trump's remark that he could launch "another little Operation Epic Fury" after the vote. That was the name of the US-Israeli offensive that began on Feb. 28, Reuters reported.reuters.com

Gulf Officials Fear the Worst

"We're basically looking at the worst-case scenario," a Gulf official told Reuters. The official expects Iran to retaliate against civilian infrastructure across the Gulf, putting desalination plants, energy facilities and communications networks at risk. Jasem Al-Budaiwi, secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council, told the forum that the GCC states "were not a party to the war and did not seek it," according to Bloomberg. Egypt's Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty warned that a second round "will be more dangerous, more destructive, and it will lead to nowhere."stripes.com+1

Tehran has added to those fears. On Saturday, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered commanders to prepare to retaliate "without geographical limitations," Bloomberg reported. A senior Iranian security official told CNN that Iran would go after targets beyond oil facilities, and that a renewed conflict would be a long "war of surprises." The UAE has been the most targeted country so far, facing more than 3,000 drones and ballistic missiles, according to IISS figures cited by the Associated Press.krmg.com+2

Diplomacy Under Pressure

Gulf states are pushing for a deal. Qatari mediators met Iranian officials in Tehran and Doha, and senior Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials traveled to Tehran last month, Reuters reported. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said mediators were discussing a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if Washington met Tehran's conditions. Iran wants the US naval blockade lifted, while the US is demanding nuclear concessions, Bloomberg reported.stripes.com+1

In a call on Saturday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pressed Trump to strike right after the midterms, but Trump wants to let negotiations play out for now, according to Axios. Trump said the US still had to "take care" of one or two nuclear sites, adding, "We can do that in 10 minutes." A White House official told Reuters that "all options" remained open.reuters.com+1

UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said his country hoped for a diplomatic breakthrough but was "braced for the worst." He told the forum, "If these positions are not bridged, then we have to worry about the worst," according to the Associated Press.krmg.com