Goldman Sachs warns Gulf oil recovery stalling after renewed Hormuz attacks

Goldman Sachs The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. ↗ 0.27% warned on Tuesday that renewed attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have reversed an earlier recovery in Persian Gulf oil exports, doubling the estimated net supply shortfall to 13.4 million barrels per day and creating fresh upside risks to the bank's price forecasts.zawya

The note, reported by Reuters, said Gulf exports had recovered to more than 80% of pre-war levels after a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June, but slipped back below 50%—roughly 11 million bpd—over the past week as fresh attacks struck shipping in the critical waterway.zawya

Prices Return to the Mid-$80s

Brent crude rose for a third straight session on Wednesday as President Donald Trump reimposed a naval blockade on all Iranian ports and Iran launched retaliatory strikes on U.S. infrastructure in the region. As of Monday, Brent had jumped to around $87 per barrel, roughly 15% above its pre-war price, according to the New York Times. Fortune reported Brent at roughly $87 per barrel on Monday morning.nytimes+2

Goldman maintained its Brent forecast of $80 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026 and $75 for 2027, but warned prices could exceed $110 in the fourth quarter if the Gulf export recovery continues to stall. Conversely, prices could fall into the $60s by year-end if regional tensions ease and production recovers more quickly than expected.zawya

A Recovery Unraveled

The disruption follows a brief period of optimism. In mid-June, Goldman cut its Q4 2026 Brent forecast from $90 to $80 after the U.S. and Iran signed an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the bank expecting Gulf exports to normalize by late July. Morgan Stanley ↗ 1.20% projected at the time that 50% of lost output could be restored by September and 80% by December.investing+1

That timeline collapsed on July 7, when Iran's military fired missiles at three commercial vessels transiting the strait, damaging a Qatari LNG tanker and a Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker. The U.S. responded with strikes on Iranian targets and revoked a sanctions waiver that had allowed Iranian oil sales. At least four tankers turned back from the strait in the immediate aftermath. A further attack on July 14 struck two UAE oil tankers and the Norwegian-owned chemical tanker Stolt Magnesium.aljazeera+5

Adjustment Mechanisms Under Strain

Goldman cautioned that any further recovery in Gulf exports is likely to be "uneven" due to the risk of additional attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure. The reinstated U.S. blockade of Iranian ports could cut Iranian exports by 1.5 million to 2 million bpd, the bank estimated. With the net hit to Persian Gulf flows having doubled in a single week, the market would require greater demand destruction and renewed inventory draws absent near-term de-escalation.zawya

China's crude imports, which fell by 5 million bpd year-on-year in June, may have reached a floor, Goldman added—limiting one of the key adjustment mechanisms that had previously helped absorb the supply shock.zawya