Gold hits three-week highs as best week since January nears 7% gain

Gold resumed its bullish advance on Friday, climbing above $4,300 an ounce to reach its highest level since mid-June, capping what is shaping up to be its strongest weekly performance since January with gains approaching 7%. The move marks the precious metal's fourth consecutive daily gain, driven by a combination of Middle East geopolitical developments and anticipation of the July Nonfarm Payrolls report due later Friday.tmgm+4

Strait of Hormuz Talks Fuel Safe-Haven Demand

The rally has been underpinned by continued uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran and Oman have moved closer to finalizing a shipping agreement but key details remain unresolved. According to the Associated Press, the emerging deal calls for ships to enter the Persian Gulf through an Iranian-controlled route and exit via an Omani-controlled lane, with service fees charged for security. CNBC reported that the two sides are in the "final stages" of drafting the agreement.cnbc+1

However, Iran has signaled that the resumption of normal shipping would depend on U.S. actions, keeping markets on edge. President Trump has said he believes the conflict could end soon, though Iranian leaders have offered a more cautious assessment. The combination of potential de-escalation and lingering uncertainty has kept gold well-bid as investors maintain safe-haven positions.investing+2

NFP Report to Set Near-Term Direction

Market attention now turns to the July Nonfarm Payrolls release, with consensus expectations calling for a gain of around 80,000 to 88,000 jobs, up from 57,000 in June. Deutsche Bank ↘ 4.50% analysts have forecast a more modest 65,000 increase, noting that such a reading "would put the latest readings below the 3- and 6-month moving averages, consistent with the recent slowing in the weekly ADP reports."fxstreet+2

A weaker-than-expected jobs figure could reinforce expectations of a less aggressive Federal Reserve stance and extend gold's advance toward the $4,380 resistance area. A stronger reading, however, could trigger profit-taking after such an extended rally. The U.S. Dollar Index has remained relatively stable despite gold's surge, suggesting geopolitical risk rather than currency weakness has been the primary driver this week.investing

Technical Picture Supports Further Upside

From a technical standpoint, gold broke above a downward trendline from April highs earlier this week, confirming what analysts describe as a trend shift. The daily RSI stands at 67, suggesting room for additional gains before reaching overbought territory, while the MACD continues to trend higher. The next resistance target sits at the mid-June highs near $4,380, with support at Thursday's low around $4,223.tmgm+1