France, Spain meet in World Cup semifinal that fueled record betting volume

The 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinal between France and Spain is set to kick off Tuesday at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, capping a tournament that has driven prediction market trading to unprecedented heights. Polymarket's World Cup winner market alone has generated more than $4.2 billion in volume, with France leading at approximately 39% implied probability to lift the trophy.polymarket+1

A Record-Setting Tournament for Prediction Markets

Combined trading volume across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US reached $44.8 billion in June, a 75% surge from May's $25.66 billion, according to data from The Block. Kalshi accounted for roughly 70% of that total at $31.5 billion, growing 87% month over month. The World Cup, which began June 11 across venues in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, has been the primary driver — Kalshi alone processed about $7.4 billion in World Cup trades during the tournament, while Polymarket's event markets drew roughly $6.4 billion.news.bitcoin+1

A Bloomberg News analysis published in late June found that World Cup prediction market trading had exceeded $5 billion across Polymarket and Kalshi at that point, confirming the tournament as the largest sports event the sector has handled.yogonet

France Favored but Spain Not Far Behind

France enters Tuesday's match as the bookmakers' choice. BetMGM lists Les Bleus at -145 to advance, with Spain at +115, translating to roughly a 55-45 split, according to The Athletic. On Kalshi's advance market, France sits near 59% while Spain hovers around 35%. Polymarket's tournament winner odds place France at 39% and Spain at 16%, reflecting France's perceived easier path through to the final.nytimes+2

Kylian Mbappé has been central to France's campaign, while Spain's young squad — anchored by Lamine Yamal — represents the reigning European champions looking to add a World Cup crown. Euronews reported Tuesday that the combined squad valuations of the two sides exceed $3.2 billion, making it the most expensive semifinal in World Cup history.FOX Sports Radio+2

The 'Final Before the Final'

The winner will face either Argentina or England in the July 19 final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. Polymarket's exact matchup market prices a France-England final as the most likely outcome at 34%, followed by France-Argentina at 28%.polymarket+1

Kickoff is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET, with more than 80,000 fans expected at AT&T Stadium and global audiences tuning in for what many analysts have framed as the tournament's de facto final.airial+2