Flávio Bolsonaro tops Lula in first round, forcing runoff

Brazil's presidential race is going to a second round. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will face Senator Flávio Bolsonaro on October 25, after neither won more than 50% of valid votes in the first round on Sunday, October 4. Flávio Bolsonaro finished first, which most pre-election polls had not predicted. The result points to a close runoff and a rightward shift among Brazilian voters.npr+2

The runoff was confirmed in live coverage from JOTA. With 99.3% of ballots counted, Bolsonaro had about 47% of the vote, according to The Washington Post. NPR reported Lula in second place with about 44%. Le Monde called Bolsonaro's lead "a surprise result that defied opinion poll projections showing Lula in the lead".lemonde+3

A rematch of sorts

The contest repeats the 2022 matchup in a new form. Four years ago, Lula unseated Bolsonaro's father, then-President Jair Bolsonaro, by the narrowest margin in Brazilian history. Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth term. Flávio Bolsonaro, the 45-year-old son of the former president, wants to bring his father's movement back to power, Reuters reported. Reuters added that the campaign was dominated by corruption scandals, economic anxiety and accusations of U.S. meddling.washingtonpost+1

Partial results reported by Portugal's Observador with about 91% counted showed Augusto Cury in third with 2.93%. Renan Santos had 2.29%, Ronaldo Caiado 2.24% and Romeu Zema 0.28%. NPR noted that the third-, fourth- and fifth-place finishers are all right-wing. That could give Bolsonaro a natural pool of voters to draw from in the runoff. Early results also showed gains for the right in Congress, particularly in the Senate. Several governors and senators from Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL) were elected in the first round.observador+1

Polls missed the first-round order

Polls just before the vote had Lula ahead or tied. On October 3, Datafolha showed Lula at 47% and Bolsonaro at 46% in a runoff scenario, a statistical tie. An AtlasIntel poll published by JOTA had Lula at 46.7% and Bolsonaro at 43.8% in the first round. In valid votes, the same poll split a runoff 50.1% to 49.9%. Surveys also showed that roughly half of voters reject each of the two leading candidates.jota+2

The count moved quickly because Brazil now uses a single voting schedule nationwide. Polls opened at 8 a.m. and closed at 5 p.m. Brasília time, and results began coming in at 5 p.m. In 2022, the first-round runoff was mathematically settled 4 hours and 36 minutes after polls closed. Kássio Nunes Marques, president of the Superior Electoral Court, said Sunday that there was no sign the vote had been subject to outside influence.valor.globo+1

According to NPR, the runoff now comes down to one question: whether Brazil wants to continue with Lula or follow the broader rightward shift that showed up in Sunday's vote.npr