Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in early Brazil election count

Polls closed across Brazil on Sunday in the first round of a close presidential election. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, is running for a fourth term against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Early official returns put Bolsonaro in front. With 10% of ballots processed, he had 51% of the vote to Lula's 40.8%, according to the electoral court as cited by DW. Brazil votes on electronic machines, so final results are expected within hours.cnbc+2

If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes, which leave out blank and spoiled ballots, the top two will meet in a runoff on October 25. Final polls pointed to a second round that could go either way. Quaest's October 3 survey had Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45% in the first round, and gave Bolsonaro a 44% to 42% edge in a runoff. Datafolha's final poll had Lula ahead in both scenarios. Early counts can shift as regional returns come in. The populous Southeast holds about 41.8% of the electorate, and Lula has traditionally been strong in the Northeast.latintimes+1

A campaign of scandal and economic anxiety

According to Reuters reporting carried by CNBC, the race was dominated by corruption scandals, economic anxiety and accusations of U.S. meddling, and offered little policy debate because both leading candidates skipped the major TV debates. The collapse of Banco Master hit much of the political class. Federal police are investigating Bolsonaro for money laundering linked to the case. He denies wrongdoing but has confirmed raising millions of dollars from the bank's former head, Daniel Vorcaro, to make a film about his father.nbcnews+1

Public debt above 82% of GDP and a growth forecast cut to 2.0% for this year have added to fiscal worries. Goldman Sachs economist Alberto Ramos said Lula "would likely preserve a state-led model," while Bolsonaro "would likely pursue a more market-friendly agenda".nbcnews

Washington's shadow

U.S. President Donald Trump has not endorsed anyone, but he hosted Bolsonaro at the White House and has praised him. In 2025 he put a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods and tied it to Jair Bolsonaro's coup trial. The former president is now serving a 27-year sentence, and his son has vowed to pardon him. Lula's allies have warned that Washington might refuse to recognize a Lula victory. The U.S. has denied interfering.dw+2

Brazil's electoral court chief, Kassio Nunes Marques, said voting went normally. "Teams monitoring international risks have not identified any risks whatsoever," he said.cnbc

After casting his ballot, Lula said, "What is at stake is the future of Brazil". Bolsonaro said, "Brazil needs change".dw+1