FAO says record grain stocks blunt ‘super’ El Nino’s global food threat

The 2026 Super El Niño is tightening its grip across the tropics, prompting governments, aid agencies, and industries from East Africa to Southeast Asia to Latin America to escalate preparations for what forecasters say could be one of the strongest events since 1950.

A Global Phenomenon Takes Shape

The World Meteorological Organization warned in May of an 80% likelihood of El Niño developing between June and August 2026, with a 90% or higher probability of the phenomenon persisting through at least November. NOAA now estimates an 81% probability that the event will reach "very strong" category between October and December, with sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region jumping from +0.4°C in May to +1.2°C in July. Brazilian meteorological agencies project a greater than 95% chance it will persist into early 2027.i4sea+2

In Somalia, the International Organization for Migration is pre-positioning emergency shelter materials and plastic sheets across the country ahead of anticipated severe flooding. The Horn of Africa nation, devastated by El Niño–driven floods in 2023, faces renewed heavy rainfall concerns as the pattern strengthens.phys+1

Indonesia's Palm Oil Under Stress

In Indonesia's Riau province — the country's largest palm oil producing region — smallholder farmers report output declines of 50 to 70 percent as below-average rainfall dries their plantations. Indonesia produces roughly 57 percent of the world's palm oil, but output this year is expected to fall by as much as 2 million tonnes due to El Niño and rising fertilizer costs. The ripple effects extend globally, influencing supply and prices for hundreds of millions of consumers who rely on the commodity in cooking oil, soap, and processed foods.news.cgtn

Brazil Braces for Economic Disruption

In Brazil, the Super El Niño is already reshaping economic forecasts. The Ministry of Finance raised its 2026 inflation projection to 5.1%, above the 4.5% target ceiling, with the Central Bank estimating El Niño will add 0.3 percentage points to consumer prices this year. The country's rural insurance market has shrunk from 82,000 policies in 2021 to just 26,000 in 2025, weakening the agricultural sector's capacity to absorb climate shocks. Meanwhile, air-conditioning manufacturers see a potential demand boost from hotter temperatures, though high interest rates and persistent inflation may limit any recovery.i4sea

Despite the localized disruptions, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization noted Wednesday that global farm production has systematically outpaced consumption over four decades, generating near-record inventories that serve as a buffer. "Technology and inventory have bought us time," a senior FAO director said. "But agriculture remains a negotiation with nature, and the climate debt of consecutive extreme weather events will eventually come due."streamlinefeed