ExxonMobil says world headed for up to 3C warming by 2050

ExxonMobil ↗ 0.17% said Thursday that the world is headed for rapid temperature increases as persistent coal use drives carbon dioxide emissions well beyond what is needed to meet mid-century climate goals, according to the company's annual Global Outlook published September 17.reuters+1

The oil major projects that CO2 emissions will reach 30 billion metric tons in 2050, nearly three times the level required to limit warming to 2°C above pre-industrial norms. The estimate is roughly 10 percent higher than ExxonMobil's projection a year ago, as carbon capture adoption slows and coal remains a dominant fuel for power generation.corporate.exxonmobil+1

'Nowhere Close' to Climate Targets

Prasanna Joshi, ExxonMobil's Economic and Energy Director, said the world is "nowhere close" to the 2°C target set by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. At the current pace, global temperatures are on track to rise between 2.5°C and 3°C by 2050, he said.rigzone

"We are seeing clear signs that coal is sticking longer from an energy security and other perspectives, specifically in parts of Asia-Pacific, China, and others," Joshi said. ExxonMobil now estimates coal will account for 15 percent of the world's energy mix by 2050, down from 25 percent in 2025 but one percentage point higher than its previous forecast, according to Reuters.reuters+1

Emission-Reduction Technologies Lose Ground

The outlook also showed projections for carbon capture and storage, and the use of low-carbon hydrogen, dropping by about one-third from last year. "That is essentially slowed down versus what we had in the last outlook because of affordability and the lack of willingness to pay," Joshi said.rigzone

Electricity demand globally is expected to rise 65 percent by 2050, driven largely by economic growth in developing countries. Data centers are forecast to double their share of US power usage within five years, though Joshi flagged "real constraints on chips, power infrastructure, and essentially the rate and pace of permitting".corporate.exxonmobil+1

A Warning Amid Policy Retreat

The report arrives as climate policy faces headwinds. The Trump administration has moved to roll back power plant emissions regulations, with the EPA proposing that regulating greenhouse gases from the power sector is outside its scope. Earlier this month, the United Nations said the original 1.5°C goal of the 2015 Paris Climate Accord will not be met, warning that warming could reach 2.6°C by century's end.timesunion

ExxonMobil maintains that its forecasts are grounded in scientific and economic data reflecting realistic policy changes and consumer behavior — though the company's projections, which consistently show strong long-term demand for oil and gas, have drawn scrutiny for potentially serving its commercial interests.rigzone