Europe’s gas storage hits lowest August level since 2021

European gas storage stands at just 58% of capacity — the lowest level for this time of year since 2021 — as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to block Qatari LNG shipments and keeps prices elevated, raising fresh concerns about energy security heading into winter.

Low Stocks, High Prices

In a typical year, European storage facilities would be filled to around 75% to 80% at this point in the season, according to Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a researcher at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy. The shortfall stems from a combination of factors: Europe ended last winter with underground storage at only 28%, and U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran led Tehran to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz to Gulf tanker traffic, halting gas shipments from Qatar since early April.dailysabah+1

The Dutch TTF contract — the benchmark for European gas — is currently trading between 55 and 58 euros per megawatt-hour for September delivery, nearly double its level before the Middle East conflict and roughly triple pre-Ukraine-war prices.energynews+1

Italy, Poland and Belgium, contracted buyers of Qatari LNG, have been among the hardest hit. "They have been unable to import any Qatari LNG volumes since April 2 — the date on which Italy received its last vessel loaded with Qatari LNG," said Ronald Pinto, an analyst at Kpler.dailysabah

Germany Lags Behind

Germany, which has Europe's largest gas-storage capacity, faces an even steeper challenge. Its sites are just over 48% full, well below the continental average. Uniper CEO Michael Lewis said Tuesday that Germany can still reach its target of 70% storage by November 1, "but we do have to see the market prices move to incentivize the filling of the storage."energyconnects

Lewis also warned that storage levels alone are insufficient. "We need to make sure that the LNG flows to Europe this winter, and that's why we need a resolution of the Strait of Hormuz closure as soon as possible," he told Bloomberg Television. "We need a peace deal in the Middle East."energyconnects

Elevated Risks Through Year-End

The European Commission has said it sees "no immediate concern regarding gas supply security" and considers an 80% fill rate "technically achievable" before winter. EU gas demand has fallen 17% compared to pre-crisis levels, and import capacity has expanded since 2022.energynews+1

Analysts are less optimistic. Rystad Energy analyst Antonia Syn said "supply risks to Europe remain elevated amid reduced LNG availability from the Middle East." Pinto expects average monthly prices to remain between 55 and 62 euros per megawatt-hour through the rest of the year, with Asian buyers — particularly China — competing directly with Europe for scarce LNG cargoes.dailysabah+1

"If stocks are down, if the winter is rough and some other problem happens, we'll have to start thinking about conservation measures," Corbeau warned.dailysabah