EU gasoline up 24%, diesel up 33% since Middle East war

European energy markets are under mounting strain as natural gas prices climb to their highest level in years and fuel costs at the pump continue to rise, driven by the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran and dwindling winter storage reserves.

Benchmark Dutch TTF futures jumped to levels not seen since late 2022 this week, according to Bloomberg, extending a rally fueled by the effective disruption of oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude surged back above $100 a barrel in September as the war intensified, feeding directly into pump prices across the continent.reuters+2

Pump Prices Soar Across the EU

Gasoline prices in the European Union have risen 24% and diesel prices 33% since the outbreak of the Middle East war in late February, according to European Commission data cited by Anadolu Agency. The EU's average pump price for Euro-super 95 gasoline climbed to €2.04 per litre by September 7, up from €1.64 before the conflict began. Diesel prices rose even faster, reaching €2.11 per litre from €1.59.aa

Denmark and Finland recorded the steepest gasoline increases, both up about 36%, while Bulgaria saw diesel prices jump roughly 47%. Czechia, Finland, and Poland featured among the hardest-hit countries for both fuel types, reflecting varying tax structures, currency effects, and local supply conditions.aa

Storage Gaps Raise Winter Alarm

Beyond oil, Europe's natural gas outlook is raising alarm. EU gas storage stood at just 67.8% full as of September 11, some 12 percentage points below the same date last year and 16 points under the five-year average. The International Energy Agency called on governments to consider emergency reserves and more flexible supply contracts.euronews+1

EU natural gas prices have risen more than 30% over the past month and are up over 140% compared with a year ago, according to Trading Economics data. The European Commission warned on September 8 that geopolitical uncertainty continued to drive volatility in oil and refined product markets, particularly for diesel and jet fuel, though it said there was no immediate threat to the EU's oil supply security.tradingeconomics+1

What Comes Next

The BBC reported that the conflict has led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, preventing Gulf supplies from reaching global markets and raising fears of renewed inflation. Euronews noted that the IEA urged countries to jointly secure emergency LNG cargoes ahead of winter. With storage lagging and the conflict showing no signs of resolution, the European Commission cautioned that markets could tighten further in the coming weeks.bbc+2