Drug launches in Europe drop 27% after Trump pricing order

Drugmakers that signed most-favored-nation (MFN) pricing deals with the Trump administration are now deciding where, and whether, to launch new medicines outside the US. Because a low price in one country can lower what a company is paid at home, some are delaying European launches, pulling products, or asking for US-level prices abroad. STAT reported on Wednesday that companies appear to be looking for workarounds to protect their US sales.statnews.com

Fewer launches in reference markets

According to a GlobalData analysis, 27% fewer new single-source brands launched in the European countries used as benchmarks under the GLOBE and GUARD Medicare models in the 17 months after Trump's MFN executive order, compared with the 17 months before it. Across all European markets, launches fell 14%. GlobalData plc is the firm behind the figures. The Wall Street Journal News Corp ↗ 0.40% reported that drug approvals in Europe held steady over the same period, so the drop reflects company launch decisions rather than regulators.wsj.com+1

The Journal gave several examples, summarized by eMarketer. Amgen withdrew a cholesterol drug from Denmark, Insmed delayed European launches of its lung disease drug, and Novartis is weighing launches only in Europe's private market. Novartis chief executive Vas Narasimhan said in October that agreeing to low prices with European governments could reduce the company's US prices, Hankyung reported. Insmed CEO William Lewis said earlier that "it seems prudent to put things on hold" until there is clarity on MFN, according to a consulting report that compiled his remarks.emarketer.com+2

Matching US prices abroad

Some companies are raising overseas prices instead of staying out of those markets. Bristol Myers Squibb Bristol-Myers Squibb Company ↗ 0.18% plans to launch its schizophrenia drug Cobenfy in the UK next year at roughly its US price, and AbbVie ↗ 0.37% intends to match its US price for the ovarian cancer drug Elahere, pharmaphorum reported. In Switzerland, companies chose not to submit seven of 22 new medicines for reimbursement because of MFN concerns, according to an Interpharma survey cited by pharmaphorum. The same analysis notes that the causes are still uncertain, because launches started falling before the executive order.pharmaphorum.com+1

Rules still taking shape

The White House said in September that it had reached MFN deals with 26 drugmakers, Drug Discovery Trends noted. The GLOBE model for Medicare Part B takes effect November 30 and faces a legal challenge, while the GUARD rule for Part D has not been finalized, according to Evidaxia. Congressional Democrats, who take control of key committees in January, are also moving to investigate the deals, STAT reported.drugdiscoverytrends.com+2

Graham Cookson, chief executive of the Office of Health Economics, described the industry's choices as "delay, run, or hide." "Delay is what most companies are doing, even if they don't admit it," he said in a Leerink podcast.leerink.com