Climate change made Spain wildfire weather 20 times more likely, study finds

Human-caused climate change made the extreme weather fueling wildfires in southwestern France at least twice as likely and made the conditions driving blazes in central Spain at least 20 times more likely, scientists said on Friday, July 31, in a rapid attribution study published as both countries continue to battle historic fires.

Attribution Findings

The World Weather Attribution group used historical weather observations to assess how hot, dry, and windy "fire-prone" conditions have changed over time due to rising greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis found that in the current climate — roughly 1.4 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times — extreme fires of this intensity are likely to occur once every 20 years in southwestern France and once every six years in central Spain.internazionale+1

"We've seen repeatedly how climate change increases hot, dry, flammable conditions that are extremely conducive to wildfires," said Clair Barnes, a research associate in extreme weather at Imperial College London who co-authored the study. "What's unique about this case is that it's still early in the season — and with another heatwave looming, these findings are extremely scary".internazionale

A Season of Extremes

The wildfires have forced more than 300,000 people to evacuate across both countries, scorching hundreds of thousands of acres in what the European Union called "one of the biggest evacuation operations in Europe". In France, the most devastating blazes have burned in the Gironde and Landes regions near Bordeaux, while in Spain fires have raged near Madrid and in other central regions.npr+2

Scientists identified a pattern of "weather whiplash" as a key factor: Spain had its wettest January in 25 years, which spurred vegetation growth, followed by what the country's meteorological agency has called its hottest summer on record. The resulting abundance of dried-out vegetation left forests stocked with highly flammable fuel.e360.yale+1

Prevention Beyond Firefighting

The WWA study emphasized that reducing wildfire risk requires more than emergency firefighting responses. The authors called for "risk-sensitive landscape planning and management," including clearing forests of dried-out vegetation ahead of wildfire season. France is currently experiencing its fourth heatwave of the year, raising concerns that conditions could deteriorate further.nbcnews+1

Last month was the hottest June on record in Western Europe, which recorded more than 10,000 excess deaths during an unprecedented heatwave, according to Yale Environment 360.e360.yale